Aromatics trade flow report 11.24.14

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THE TPS WEEKLY AROMATICS TRADE FLOW REPORT November 24, 2014 Vol 1, Issue 26 LONDON SINGAPORE HOUSTON BENZENE AND PYGAS SUMMARY: US spot benzene prices surged to close the week, gaining $33 on the day after December was heard traded as high as $1,040.50/mt DDP TXC. Liquidity increased after market appeared to bottom out and ahead of pending contract negotiations and volumes of trade barrels were heard estimated well in excess of 300,000 barrels. For November, loadings were few with a handful of 5-9kt parcels heard fixed. Sources reported at least three different fixtures of volumes between 15-25kt though confirmation was not available. Sources however noted that any such fixture were likely COA. Landed fixtures included a near 4kt parcel from Brazil as well as some 10kt reformate heart cut benzene, all reported on November 17. A 15kt parcel of pygas arrived at Baton Rouge from Tarragona mid-month, according to PIERS The TPS Asian benzene marker fell nearly $40 on the week to close Friday at $994/mt FOB USG and at $1,018/mt CFR China. December European benzene was talked notionally at near $985/mt CIF ARA while January maintained a $20 premium to December. -$100.00-$50.00$0.00$50.00$100.00$150.00$200.00$0.00$200.00$400.00$600.00$800.00$1,000.00$1,200.00$1,400.00$1,600.00$1,800.003-Mar-1411-Mar-1419-Mar-1427-Mar-144-Apr-1414-Apr-1423-Apr-142-May-1412-May-1421-May-1430-May-149-Jun-1417-Jun-1425-Jun-143-Jul-1414-Jul-1422-Jul-1430-Jul-147-Aug-1415-Aug-1425-Aug-143-Sep-1411-Sep-1419-Sep-1429-Sep-147-Oct-1415-Oct-1423-Oct-1431-Oct-1410-Nov-1418-Nov-14US BZ DDP M2 BZ FOB KOREA SPREADQty Load Discharge Laycan Ship5,000 USGC ARA Oct 1-10 Bow Spring9,000 Ulsan Houston Early Nov Siteam Explorer6-9,000 Mumbai USGC End Nov Bow Sagami9,000 Sikka USGC End Nov Nave Universe5-7,000 Korea Houston Early Dec NA9,000 Ulsan USGC H1 Dec Formosa 29PYGASQty Load Discharge Laycan Ship10,000 Rotterdam Houston Early Oct Shamrock Jupiter10,000 Fawley Houston Oct Ebony Ray15,000 Tarragona Baton Rouge End Oct Songa Opal*Spread includes freight rates from Korea to the US Gulf Coast of $70/mt Copyright The Petrochemical Standard 2014 | useds@petchemstandard.com | CONTENT IS PROVIDED AS IS. TPS MAKES NO GUARANTEES OR WARRANTIES AS TO THE ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, TIMELINESS, OR RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED FROM ACCESSING AND USING TPS DATA. SUMMARY: US spot styrene monomer prices continued to move lower this week before rebounding slightly to close the week, supported by gains in benzene. In the US activity was thin with one trade heard early in the week at $1,256.50/mt FOB USG. With European styrene prices declining due in part to a recent surge of US material sent that way, US prices moved in concert. With European Dec SM prices near $1,260-1,270/mt, US prices would have to be near or below $1,234.50/mt (56 cents/lb) FOB USG. Despite US monomer prices being higher than their counterparts in Europe and Asia, some 45,000 metric tons was expected to load from the USGC in November. Sources also noted that a decline in the US benzene contract could help make it profitable to produce incremental pounds of styrene. In Asia, styrene monomer prices were lower with the TPS CFR China marker falling over $23 on the week to finish Friday at $1,277/mt. FOB Korea styrene finished down $8.50 on the week to close Friday at $1,255/mt. In production sources said that Styrolution was beginning the restart of its 770,000 metric tons/year SM unit at Bayport, Texas. Confirmation from the producer was not immediately available. Westlake had restarted its 260,000 mt/year SM unit at Lake Charles earlier this month. STYRENE AND BENZENE DERIVATIVES StyreneQty Load Discharge Laycan Ship7,000 Houston Gebze Oct 25-30 MTM Hamburg7,340 Houston Rotterdam Oct 25-30 Bow Summer5,700 Houston Anping, China H1 Nov Stolt Island10,500 Houston Brazil Nov 1-10 Sloman Herakles5,000 USGC ARA Mid-Nov Harbour Progress10,000 USGC ARA Nov 20-30 Bow Chain5,000 Houston ARA Mid-Nov Nordic tonnage - NA5,000 Houston ARA H2 Nov Chem Lyra5,000 Houston ARA H2 Nov Stolt Innovation5,000 Houston FE and China Nov 12-20 Bow TrajectoryCopyright The Petrochemical Standard 2014 | useds@petchemstandard.com | CONTENT IS PROVIDED AS IS. TPS MAKES NO GUARANTEES OR WARRANTIES AS TO THE ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, TIMELINESS, OR RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED FROM ACCESSING AND USING TPS DATA. CumeneQty Load Discharge Laycan Ship5,230 Antwerp Mobile Oct 25-30 Bow Clipper6,500 Paiolo Baton Rouge Nov 1-5 Henda3,000 Ulsan Freeport Nov 5-10 Atllantic Canyon5,000 Terneuzen Freeport Nov 15-20 NAPhenolQty Load Discharge Laycan Ship2,857 Houston Rotterdam Oct 25-30 Nordic Mari1,048 Houston Kaohsiung Oct 25-30 Stolt Effort 1,048 Houston Pasir Gudang, Malaysia Oct 25-30 Stolt Effort 2,500 Houston Kandla November 1-5 Stolt Savannah1,030 Houston Kandla November 5-10 Songa PeaceStyrene economics on a spot basis remained in negative territory this week after waning demand and lower prices in Europe put downward pressure on US prices. With the November benzene contract settled at $1,136/mt and ethylene at near $1,108/mt, ethylbenzene production costs were estimated at $1,158.75/mt (52.56 cents/lb) while styrene monomer production costs were at $1,311.75/mt (59.50 cents/lb). With spot being talked well under 57 cents/lb, margins on incremental pounds were estimated at near -$67.25/mt, according to TPS data. The styrene to benzene spread closed Friday at $216/mt, down from near $450/mt the previous week. -120.00-70.00-20.0030.0080.00130.00180.00230.00280.0030.0035.0040.0045.0050.0055.0060.0065.0070.0075.0080.0011-Mar-1420-Mar-1431-Mar-149-Apr-1421-Apr-1430-Apr-1412-May-1421-May-142-Jun-1411-Jun-1420-Jun-141-Jul-1411-Jul-1422-Jul-14Aug-1-14Aug-12-14Aug-21-142-Sep-1411-Sep-1422-Sep-141-Oct-1410-Oct-1421-Oct-1430-Oct-1410-Nov-1419-Nov-14SM production costs SM Spot value SM Margins $/mtMIXED XYLENES, PARAXYLENE AND TOLUENE Activity in the xylenes and toluene markets remained slow on the week outside of a few COA fixtures. US November spot MX prices closed this week at nea $812/mt FOB USG. The US price was a $38 premium to the TPS CR China marker. European MX prices were last heard talked notionally at $820/mt FOB NWE PX prices continued to trace movement in Asia while activity was thin. In November, 20,000 metric tons was heard loaded from the US, 10kt for Mexico and another 10kt headed to China. US prices were at $970/mt Friday while the TPS CFR Taiwan marker was at $1,040/mt. US toluene prices finished the week at $836/mt FOB USG as a 5,200 mt parcel arrived in Houston from Aratu/La Plata. Copyright The Petrochemical Standard 2014 | useds@petchemstandard.com | CONTENT IS PROVIDED AS IS. TPS MAKES NO GUARANTEES OR WARRANTIES AS TO THE ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, TIMELINESS, OR RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED FROM ACCESSING AND USING TPS DATA. 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00011/2/2014 11/3/2014 11/4/2014 11/5/2014 11/6/2014US styrene monomer exports - H1 NovPXQty Load Discharge Laycan Ship10,500 Texas City Coatzacoalcos Oct 10-15 Bertina10,000 Houston Suape Oct 20-30 Fairchem Mustang10,400 Houston Pajaritos/Coatzacoalcos End Oct Oceanic Cerise9,300 Houston Altamira/Pajaritos Nov 5-10 Bertina10,000 Houston Suape Nov 1-10 MTM London10,000 Houston Ningbo Mid-Nov Siteam AdventurerMXQty Load Discharge Laycan Ship4,200 Rio Grand do Sol Houston Oct 1-10 Selje10,000 Houston Ulsan Oct 5-10 Sequoia9,500 Houston Ulsan Oct 20-25 Bow Elm2,000 Houston Bourbata Oct 20-30 St Aqua2,500 Houston Veracruz Oct 25-30 BernoraTOLUENEQty Load Discharge Laycan Ship5,245 Aratu/La Plata Houston 28-Oct Bow ChainActivity in the xylenes and toluene markets remained slow on the week outside of a few COA fixtures. US November spot MX prices closed this week at near at $812/mt FOB USG. The US price was a $38 premium to the TPS CR China marker. European MX prices were last heard talked notionally at $820/mt FOB NWE PX prices continued to trace movement in Asia while activity was thin. In November, 20,000 metric tons was heard loaded from the US, 10kt for Mexico and another 10kt headed to China. US prices were at $970/mt Friday $70 below the TPS CFR Taiwan marker. US toluene prices finished the week at $836/mt FOB USG as a 5,200 mt parcel arrived in Houston from Aratu/La Plata. European toluene was talked at a $5/mt premium to US material while the TPS CFR China marker closed slightly higher Friday at $863/mt. -$50.00$0.00$50.00$100.00$150.00$200.00$0.00$200.00$400.00$600.00$800.00$1,000.00$1,200.00$1,400.00$1,600.0014-Mar-1425-Mar-143-Apr-1414-Apr-1424-Apr-146-May-1415-May-1427-May-145-Jun-1416-Jun-1425-Jun-147-Jul-1416-Jul-1425-Jul-145-Aug-1414-Aug-1425-Aug-144-Sep-1415-Sep-1424-Sep-143-Oct-1414-Oct-1423-Oct-143-Nov-1412-Nov-1421-Nov-14MX FOB $/mt PX FOB USG M1 PX-MX SpreadCopyright The Petrochemical Standard 2014 | useds@petchemstandard.com | CONTENT IS PROVIDED AS IS. TPS MAKES NO GUARANTEES OR WARRANTIES AS TO THE ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, TIMELINESS, OR RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED FROM ACCESSING AND USING TPS DATA. COMPANY LOCATION CAPACITY TIMINGUSStyrolution Bayport 770 kt/year 11/20/2014 - RSShell Norco 1,360 kt/year 11/13/2014 - FireWestlake Lake Charles 260,kt/year 11/13/2014 - RSASIALG Chem Yeosu 380 kt/year H2 Oct - 30 daySinopec Zhenhai 650 kt/year End Oct - 30 dayThai PTTGC Map Tu Phut 650 PX, 355 BZ 10/17/2014 - RSEUROPEShell Moerdijk 460 kt/year Down June -RS Jan 15ExxonMobil Botlek 820 kt/year October - RS H1 2015PRODUCTION H2 Nov MTD $816.25 H2 Nov MTD - $794.00 H2 Nov MTD $816.25 H2 Nov MTD - $794.00 Copyright The Petrochemical Standard 2014 | useds@petchemstandard.com | CONTENT IS PROVIDED AS IS. TPS MAKES NO GUARANTEES OR WARRANTIES AS TO THE ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, TIMELINESS, OR RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED FROM ACCESSING AND USING TPS DATA. Copyright The Petrochemical Standard 2014 | useds@petchemstandard.com | CONTENT IS PROVIDED AS IS. TPS MAKES NO GUARANTEES OR WARRANTIES AS TO THE ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, TIMELINESS, OR RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED FROM ACCESSING AND USING TPS DATA. HALF MONTH AVERAGES US SPOT BZ DDP USG US SPOT SM FOB USG H2 Sep - $1,268.30 H2 Sep - $1,489.21 H1 Oct - $1,243.50 H1 Oct - $1,500.25 H2 Oct - $1,154.00 H2 Oct - $1,493.18 H1 Nov - $1,057.00 H1 Nov -$1,416.50 H2 Nov MTD - $983.71 H2 Nov MTD - $1,244.75 US SPOT TOLUENE FOB USG US SPOT MX FOB USG H2 Sep $1,084.46 H2 Sep - $1,090.80 H1 Oct - $1,113.00 H1 Oct - $1,072.50 H2 Oct - $972.80 H2 Oct - $978.93 H1 Nov - $874.60 H1 Nov - $867.18 H2 Nov MTD $816.25 H2 Nov MTD - $794.00 US SPOT PX FOB USG H2 Sep $1,185.90 H1 Oct - $1,133.75 H2 Oct - $997.50 H1 Nov $938.50 H2 Nov MTD - $956.00 0501001502002503003504004505000.00100.00200.00300.00400.00500.00600.00BZ price gal NGT price gal MX price gal1.5001.7001.9002.1002.3002.5002.7002.9003.1003.3001-Jan-131-Feb-131-Mar-131-Apr-131-May-131-Jun-131-Jul-131-Aug-131-Sep-131-Oct-131-Nov-131-Dec-131-Jan-141-Feb-141-Mar-141-Apr-141-May-141-Jun-141-Jul-141-Aug-141-Sep-141-Oct-141-Nov-14NYMEX RBOB Gasoline