Dammed If You Do, Damned If You Dont

  • Published on

  • View

  • Download


GLOBAL SEA LEVEL RISE AND THE CONSEQUENCES FOR THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT5 JUNE 2008PROFESSORS MARTIN FISCHER AND BEN SCHWEGLERNATHAN CHASE, VIVIEN CHUA, DAVID NEWELL Dammed if You Do,Damned if You Dont*Inundated areas resulting from 2m SLR http://flood.firetree.net/*IntroductionHow we got hereWith a little research and advice from the professors, putting together a basic dike design was fairly straightforward after that, I was hooked! Countless hours later, the design process continues Nathan Chase**Some striking resultsDavid NewellGravel shortages50+ years for China65+ years for India*Some striking resultsVivien ChuaThe first step in reliable engineering design is modeling - we are closer to creating a better world!Background and Need*Coastal Development & PortsOver half of worlds population lives within 200km of the coast (UN, 2001)135% coastal pop. growth projected between 1995-2025 (Columbia U.)27.187 billion metric tons of seaborne trade in 2006 (AAPA)3*Sea Level Rise Fact or Fiction?Model does not include future dynamical changes in ice flow*Hurricane KatrinaHurricane AndrewNatural Disasters*Cyclone Nargis*Project Overview*Project OverviewAnalyze coastal protection design alternativesQuantify current/projected capacity of design & construction industryModel the response using 2D/3D/4D tools and disseminate informationCompare capacity to what is needed*Limited understanding of DCI capacityNo official statistics for USNatural disasters can cause significant impact (e.g., Hurricane Katrina/Rita)Difficulty in compiling global dataResources are allocated on a regional or national basis e.g. cranes, dredges, steel*How to Protect PortsDefine the protection strategy and scopee.g. dikes, levees, landfill for port surfaceDevelop a minimum reasonable design for the scopeObtain cost data reflective of regional conditionsCompare the design and scope to global data on materials, weather, construction goods and services, etc.*Why ports?Fixed infrastructure that cannot be relocated easilyHigh economic value, easy to measureClear baseline of what will be protectedData availabilitySimplifying assumption (difficulties with residential/commercial developments, undeveloped areas, etc.)*Port Selection*1 Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit (TEU) is one 20-ft container (one 40-ft container = 2 TEUs)Methodology for Case StudiesGoal: evaluate and strengthen project by performing detailed case studies in different regionsOverall procedure:Site identificationConceptual design alternatives evaluationSchematic design developmentIncorporation of results in overall projectTools have been developed to simplify the data collection and design element*Current Status*Current StatusPort CharacteristicsWorlds most important 177 ports, integrated into Google Earth*Current StatusGIS model automatically determines:- Protection length- Average protection height*Current StatusCost and availability/capacity data (US, Asia, Europe)RS MeansUNCountrywatchEtc.*Current StatusCoastal Protection Design toolOffshore dike, navigation lock, pump station, maintenance dredging*Long Beach Harbor a Case StudyManual design 10.5 miles long 25m high- Cost: $1693 millionTime to construct: 21.1 yearsModel design 10 miles long 9m high- Cost: $712 million- Time to construct: 9.7 years**1 meter sea level rise predicted by 2100!!!*Sea level record at Golden GateAreas at risk in San Francisco BayGIS modeling2D hydrodynamic modeling1 meter sea level rise http://flood.firetree.net*Sacramento-San Joaquin deltaGolden Gate channelCalibration at NOAA station Golden Gate (9414290)**What if we do nothing? 2D hydrodynamic modeling Flooding risks Changes to circulation patterns Deterioration of water quality Disappearing habitats/ecosystems Modifications to sediment distributions*Erosion of salt ponds & submerging tidal marshes Average depth of tidal marshes and salt ponds = 0.1 m1 m sea level rise*Action plan: Partial intrusion barrage at Golden GateRegulate amount of sea water entering and leaving the baySea water entering bay as flood tide*A tidal power barrage?Estimate of tidal power at Golden Gatewhere = density of sea water = 1000 kg/m3, Q = flow rate, g = acceleration due to gravity = 9.81 m2/s, h = tidal amplitudeIn a neap-spring cycle, Max Q = 5000 m3/sMax h = 2 mMax P = 1x108W**Results*Measuring our Results********Google Earth DemonstrationNetherlandsStanford/S.F. BaySan Pedro Bay (L.A.)Port CharacteristicsPort Polygons4D Model*Future Directions*Collaborations, Raising AwarenessNew collaborations in Netherlands, India, etc.Stanford Engineering & Public Policy Framework Project: Climate Change and its Impact on the Built EnvironmentWrite journal articlesMake GoogleEarth project data available*Fall 2008 Undergrad/Grad Course3 unit CEE course, but need students in economics, public policy, computer scienceFocus: Principles & practices for designing a marine construction project, as applied to the Stanford Engineering Framework projectWeek 1: Introduction, project background, reading on case studies (Netherlands, Japan, Hurricane Katrina) Week 2: Marine Construction industry: equipment, materials, labor (guest lecturer from industry)Week 3: Site selection and characterization (guest lecture on coastal development)Week 4-6: Conceptual design (guest lecture) Week 7-9: Schematic design (guest lecture on hydrologic modeling)Week 10: Writing up and presenting results (in class presentations, final reports) Other elements: intensive collaboration session with students from Delft, Madras/Chennai*AcknowledgementsFred Raichlen, California Institute of TechnologyKyle Johnson, Great Lakes Dredge & DockBob Bittner, Ben C. Gerwick Inc.Andrew Peterman, Walt Disney ImagineeringChris Holm, Walt Disney Co.Austin Becker, Rhode Island Sea GrantChristian Brockmann, Bremen University of Applied SciencesPrior Stanford students: Mike Dvorak, Lakshmi Alagappan, Evridiki Fekka, Elisa Zhang**Questions?***********


View more >