America’s Challenge Why we are here, What’s coming, What we can do.
Americas Challenge Why we are here, Whats coming, What we can do. Sam Houston Tea Party November 21, 2011. Disclaimer - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Sam Houston Tea PartyNovember 21, 2011AMERICAS CHALLENGEWHY WE ARE HERE, WHATS COMING, WHAT WE CAN DO.DisclaimerThis Presentation is based on information available to the public from various sources at the time of writing as well as various private and internet sources. No assurances are made for the accuracy and correctness of the information in the Presentation and the consequences being a result of using the information herein. New and different information may be available at a later stage that can vary or modify the current views. The information, opinions, and analysis contained herein are based on sources believed to be reliable but no representation, expressed or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. The opinions contained herein reflect my current judgment and are subject to change without notice.Lyle HendersonPERSPECTIVEUsed to hearing from Politicians and Pundits.Politicians focus on getting elected.Pundits/Media focused on sound bitesEngineers trained to look at the numbersLook at analogsUnderstand the underlying forcesBoil down to solutionsTALK OUTLINEAmericas Financial ProblemGlobal DemographicsEuropeProgressivismCivilizationSolutionsAMERICAS FINANCIAL PROBLEMProblem started with:Lyndon JohnsonWar on PovertyGreat SocietyPoverty is 14%Poverty is 14.3%55% or 16,700Per family33% of avg incomeGDP BY COUNTRYCurrent Growth RateU.S.14.5 T $China5.9Japan5.5Germany3.3France2.6U.K.2.2Brazil2.1Italy2.1Great SocietyIn 2000,Alan Greenspan Said by 2011 we wouldbe debt free.U.S. DEBT PROBLEMUS Revenue:$ 2,170,000,000,000Federal Budget$ 3,820,000,000,000New Debt$ 1,650,000,000,000National Debt$14,271,000,000,000U.S. DEBT PROBLEMAVERAGE FAMILY PERSPECTIVERevenue:$ 50,000Spending: $ 88,000New Debt$ 38,000Cumulative Debt$ 328,000RAISE REVENUE ?U.S. GOVERNMENT REVENUE2012 PROJECTEDIndividual Income Taxes$1.14 TrillionCorporate Income Taxes$ 329 BillionSocial Insurance$ 925 BillionOther$ 233 BillionTotal$ 2.6 TrillionADJUSTED GROSS INCOME AND FEDERAL TAX+$392,000+$33,000+$160,000+$114,000+$67,0002008 numbersChart20.20.3184.108.40.206.220.127.116.11.110.130.03Share of AGIShare of FITSheet12008 Tax YearAnalysis of FIT Increase: TAX the RICHAdd. RevIncr FIT50% Increase.35 to .395% of TaxpayersSplit Pt - $No. of ReturnsAGI - Billion $FIT Paid - Billion $Share of AGIShare of FITAvg taxon Rich% of TaxpayersAGIFITAvg taxTop 1%380,3541,400,0001,68539220%38%23%0.34519650.4Top 1%1,203,571280,00023%4-5%159,6195,598,0001,24121415%21%17%0.2551074-5%221,68638,22817%6-10 %113,7996,998,00093011611%11%12%6-10 %132,89516,57612%11-25%67,28020,994,0001,82216922%16%9%11-25%86,7878,0509%26-50%33,04834,990,0001,67411320%11%7%26-50%47,8423,2297%Bottom 50%33,04869,980,0001,0742813%3%3%Bottom 50%15,3474003%All139,960,5808,4261032Increasing all tax brackets by another 5%only adds about $ 200 BillionSource : Internal Revenue ServiceSheet1AGI - Billion $FIT Paid - Billion $Billion $2008 IRS DataSheet2Share of AGIShare of FITSheet3TO PAY FOR OBAMAS $ 1.6 TRILLION DEFICIT:Raising Marginal Tax on top 1% from 35% to 39.5%Raises only 50 of 1,600 Billion needed.Raise all tax brackets by 5% (e.g. 15% 20% or +33%)Raises only 200 BillionDouble Taxes on top 10% Raises 1.37 TrillionBut: At what cost to the Economy?THE WEALTH TAXSpain is re-introducing it.France has long had one.Italy is considering one.Tax on physical assets, Financial assets, Pension funds, etc.THE GREEDY 1%A LESSON FOR THE OCCUPIERSWhen you see the poor around the world and the concentration of wealth in the hands of a few, dont you start having doubts about Capitalism and greed?Tell me a society that doesnt run on greed. Do you think Russia or China dont run on greed?The world runs on individuals pursuing their self interest.The great achievements of civilization did not come from GovernmentsThe only cases where the masses have escaped grinding poverty is where they have had capitalism and relatively free markets.The masses are worst off in societies without capitalism and free tradeBut it doesnt seem to reward virtue as much as ability to manipulate the system.What does reward virtue? Do you think a soviet commisar rewards virtue? Or a Hitler rewards virtue?Where do you think you will find these angels who will organize society for us?Milton Freedman being interviewed by Phill Donahue 31 years agoCUT SPENDING?WHERE?Cut to Eliminate Borrowing20% Cut w/0 cuttingEntitlementsMedicadeMedicareSocial SecurityMilitary InterestOtherTHE LIMIT TO NATIONAL DEBTWashington is dependent on the bond markets being willing to absorb an increase in federal debt:$ 100+ Billion every MONTH.Equivalent of the GDP of Canada or India every year.We know we are outspending AmericaWhat happens if we outspend the entire planet?MONETIZING THE DEBT EXPERIENCE TEACHES US:Mid 60s Fed started buying Treasuries to finance Vietnam WarLed to Recession of late 70sJob lossesInflationHigh unemploymentInterest rates of 20%A LOOK AT GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHICSReading Suggestions:America, Alone and America, After by Mark SteynFERTILITY RATES BY COUNTRYBIRTHS PER WOMANEurope & The WestItaly1.39Russia 1.42Germany1.41Spain 1.47France1.96U.K.1.91Canada1.58U.S.2.06Mexico2.29Australia1.78AsiaIndia2.62China1.54Japan1.21AfricaUganda6.69Angola5.97Nigeria4.73Source: CIA 2011 est.2.1 to Maintain Population, Below 1.7 is Death SpiralFALLING FERTILITY RATESExperts attribute to:increasing costs of raising a childrising womens labor force participationdelayed childbearingU.S. fertility remains higher increased access to child careincreased male domestic involvement?JAPANS DEMOGRAPHICSNO IMMIGRATIONGLOBAL TRENDSBy 2050, most of the developed countries in both Europe and East Asia will become veritable old-age homes:A third + of their populations will be older than 65Only a fifth in the U.S. 30 percent of China over 60United Nations est.DEPOPULATIONIn eastern Germany, rural communities are dying.Sewer systems dont have enough people flushing to keep the flow moving.Environmentalists got it backward. Not a question of sustainable growthBut of sustainable lack of growth.By 2050: Public pensions as % of GDP:US 6.5%, Germany - 16.9%, Spain 17.3%, Greece 24.8%END OF THE POSTWAR WELFARE STATEPAUL S. HEWITT 2002 PAPEREconomic consequences of depopulation.Current society depends on continued economic expansion.Rapidly depopulating nations face aging recessions vicious cycle of falling demand, collapsing asset values, shrinking corporate profits, deteriorating household and financial institution balance sheets, weakening currencies, and soaring budget pressures. 2002 assessment concluded aging recessions would begin appearing sometime after 2010, and continue for the next three or four decades.CHINAS FUTUREDue to one child policy, China will get old before it gets rich.Millions of surplus young men lead to: convulsions at home or war abroad.Has to maximize its power before demographic decay sets in. Incentive to push, hard and fast.AFRICASub-Saharan Africa will double its population between 2010 and 2030It would be asking a lot for them to remain in the teeming, pathogenic, shanty megalopolises into which the third worlds population is consolidating.Pressure to move to Europe or AmericaAN INSTRUCTIVE LOOK AT EUROPE0.5 T$2.2 T$2.2 T$THE GLOBAL PICTUREAbout half of the Global Economy is living beyond its meansAlso beyond its diminished number of childrens meansInstead of addressing that factCountries with government debt of 160% of GPDAre being rescued by countries with 80% debt levels.Good luck with that.EUROPEAN AUSTERITYPOLITICIANS AVOID IT, BUT:Depopulation means government-sponsored insurance and pension plans must change. Options are:Increase taxes on a proportionately smaller working population or decrease benefits. A threshold for higher taxation will be reached Only choice will be to cut benefits. GREECE1.3 Children per couple100 grandparents have 42 grandkids.Greeks retire at 58. Who pays for the last 1/3 of their lives?Get 14 monthly payments per year for 30 weeks work.Work day ends at 2:30 PMEver fewer customers and even fewer workersBut ever more retirees and more governmentHow do you increase GPD? By export? To where? Totally uncompetitive.Government introduced an austerity package to rein in spending.In response, Greek tax collectors went on strike.GREECE: WILL THEY REFORM?TAKIS MICHAS, WALL STREET JOURNALIn the last 12 months not one civil servant has been fired.Trying to tax the private sector out of existence.In August more than 1000 Greeks in the private sector were losing their jobs every day.The government was assuring civil servants with lifetime tenure that their job privileges were not in danger.Greeces plans resemble Soviet five year plans: They look good on paper but have no bearing on reality.Anyone in government who tries to point this out is forced to resign.ITALY7 of 10 adults aged 18 39 live with their folks.When the government does too much, nobody else does much of anything.GERMANY30% of German women are childless. 40% among university graduates.During the 21st Century, Germanys population will fall by over 50% to 38 million or lower.German worker puts in 22% fewer hours per year than AmericanGermany has shrinking economy, shrinking and aging population, and potentially catastrophic welfare liabilities.GERMANYU.S. pays for their defense,They beat their swords into welfare checksErected huge cradle to grave entitlements.70% of Germans want no further cuts in welfarePrefer increasing taxation on the very rich.Only 45% believe that competition is good for economic growth and employment.Increasingly think of themselves as citizens of the planet rather than citizens of the WestDo Islamic or Chinese citizens think this way?EUROPEANSWork fewer hours than AmericansDont go to church, marry, have kidsWhat do they do with all their time?When life becomes an extended picnic, with nothing of importance to do,Ideas of greatness become an irritant.Such is the nature of the European syndromeThe government makes the grown-up decisions (health care) and they spend their pocket money on our record collection and satellite TV.BEHIND EUROPES PROBLEMSPeople Refuse Cuts in EntitlementsHigh Taxation on shrinking base causes private job creators to leaveEurope is Post-Christian, Post-Nationalist, Post-modern,But what gives it meaning?Complements of Brad Schafer - GBTVTHE LONG RUNFunctioning societies honor the long run.Why they have children, build houses, plant gardens, start businesses,Build churches, create great works of art, fight and die for king and country.Europe used to do these things.You dont need to make material sacrifices; the state takes care of itYou dont need to have childrenCertainly dont need to die for king and country.THE LONG RUNBut a society that has nothing to die for has nothing to live for.So it has 30 year old students and 50 year old retireesAnd wonders why the small band of workers in between cant make the math add up.TWO FORCES FACING OFF IN EUROPEModern social-democratic stateAmerican left thinks this should be our model.Resurgent IslamImmigrants refuse to assimilateFERTILITY RATES BY COUNTRYBIRTHS PER WOMANEurope & The WestItaly1.39Russia 1.42Germany1.41Spain 1.47France1.96U.K.1.91Canada1.58U.S.2.06Mexico2.29Australia1.78Muslim CountriesSomalia6.35Afghanistan5.39Gaza Strip4.74Yemen4.63Iraq3.67Jordan3.39Pakistan3.17Egypt2.97Syria2.94Saudi Arabia2.31Indonesia2.25Iran1.88AsiaIndia2.62China1.54Japan1.21AfricaUganda6.69Angola5.97Nigeria4.73Source: CIA 2011 est.2.1 to Maintain Population, Below 1.7 is Death SpiralFRANCEIn 2005 10% of Frances population was Muslim.30% of age 20 and under45% in major urban centersIMPACT OF THE MUSLIM INFLUXIN EUROPEHISTORY732 ADMuslim armies had advanced a thousand miles north of Gibralter to control Spain and southern France.At Poitiers, for once, the Christian army held and defeated the MuslimsClose run thing. What if the Muslims won?No Christian EuropeNorth America would have been Muslim.Now a peaceful muslim advance has penetrated far deeper.HOW MUCH ALLAH CAN THE OLD CONTINENT BEAR?HEADLINE IN DER SPIEGELParadoxically, the Holocaust enabled the Islamization of EuropePost war guiltRevulsion against NationalismEmbrace of multiculturalismEurope made its principal source of new Europeans a population whose primary identity derived from a belief system that claimed total jurisdiction over every aspect of their lives.HOW MUCH ALLAH CAN THE OLD CONTINENT BEAR?HEADLINE IN DER SPIEGELAmazed to discover:The new Europeans assumed that all European social, cultural, and political life should realign itself with the Muslim belief system.ISLAM AND FREEDOM OF RELIGIONIslam is a religion, but it is also a legal code Sharia LawThere is no Christian LawEnglish Common Law (and Napoleonic Code) are different philosophically from Christianity.Not merely that there is a global jihad lurking in IslamBut the religion itself is a political project an imperial project: the global caliphate.So, we have a global terrorist movement insulated within a global political project insulated within a severely self segregating religion.Whose adherents are the fastest growing demographic in the developed world.TERRORISM AND WELFAREIts not true that every immigrant on welfare is an Islamic terrorist,But, the vast majority of Islamic terrorists in Europe are on welfare.Living in radicalized ghetto cultures with nothing to do but sit around plotting jihad all day at taxpayers expense.TERRORISM AND WELFAREMnjem Choudary, British Muslim leader, hailed 9/11 as magnificent and its perpetrators heroes. Advocates Sharia for the UK and US.He and his wife are welfare recipients.Racks up frequent flyer mileage jetting off to liaise with like minded Muslims in other countries.BRITAIN & CANADAMuslim Immigrants Do not assimilateDe facto incremental Islamic law is well establishedBritish and Ontario governments confirm thousands of polygamous men receive welfare payments for each of their wives.A British attempt to confine spousal benefits to no more than two wives was struck down as discriminatory by the European Court of Human Rights.57% of Pakistani Britons are married to their first cousins, 70% to relativesGenerating increased health problems and straining the health care budget.Half the Yorkshire kindergarten class are children of first cousins.ARE WE FOLLOWING THE EUROPEAN PATH?BY 2050 there will be 100 million more Americans and 100 million fewer EuropeansWHEN SOMETHING GOES WRONG;A European demands to know what the governments going to do about it.Now other governmentsAn American does it himself THE TINKLING BELLS OF PROGRESSIVISMAUSTRIAN SCHOOL OF ECONOMICSCelebrated contribution of business to society,opposes taxes, price controls, and regulations Job of an economist is to tell governments what they cannot do.Socialism permits no private property or exchange in capital goods, and thus no way for resources to find their most highly valued use. Socialism would result in utter chaos and the end of civilization.KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS THE GREAT ECONOMIST OF THE LEFTSolution to Recession/Depression is government stimulation Reduction in interest rates Government investment in infrastructure. Investment by government injects income:results in more spending in general economystimulates more production and investmentinvolving still more income and spending and so forthincrease in economic activity is a multiple of the original investment.When asked about how this government stimulus ultimately gets paid for,Keynes replied In the long run, we are all dead.KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS: FOUR PROBLEMSBig increases in government spending and deficits raise prospect of future tax increases.Most government spending redistributes income from workers to the unemployed.Increases welfare of those hurt by recessionBut, shift of resources to redistribution and away from productive investment.Ignores effects of costly new regulations from Team Obama.How can corporations estimate future return on new investment with tax rates and costs unknowable.Focus on short term and ignores medium and long term costs.THE MODERN BRITISH WELFARE STATE1942 William Beveridge laid out blueprint.Goal: Abolition of Want and insulate the citizenry from the vicissitudes of fate.Very successful:Fewer and fewer BritonsWant to work, or marry, or raise childrenWant to lead a life of any purpose or dignity.Cooperation between the State and the individual has resulted in a huge expansion of the former and the ceaseless withering of the latter.FREEDOM IS MESSYSome People make poor choices:drink too muchEat too muchBuy unaffordable homes,Fail to make prudent provision for health care and much elseBut the price of being relieved of those choices it far too high:Big Government is the small optionGuarantee of smaller freedom, homes, cars, opportunities, livesTHE ALLURE OF BEING LIBERALIN AMERICAVery few people are fiercely political.This is reasonable;The point of politics is to enable life and its pleasuresSo, among Americas elites, and many othersLiberalism is the soft optionHas all the nice words:Diversity, tolerance, peace, social justice, sustainabilityRequires the least defending in casual conversation.If you have to have opinions, these are the safe ones.default settings of contemporary sensibilityTHE LIBERAL ARGUMENTGET THE BUMPER STICKERWhat do you think of illegal immigration? Celebrate Diversity, you are a racist.What do you think of Islam?Celebrate Diversity, you are an islamiphobe.What do you think of burkas, honor killings, stoning for adultery, capital punishment for homosexuals?Celebrate DiversityPROGRESSIVES & RADICAL ISLAMHumans wish to belong to something larger than themselves to give life meaning;Tribe, then nation and religion.Now Church in steep decline, nation states abhorred as the font of racism, imperialismNow they believe in Global Warming, Save the PlanetWhile Muslims find the new Globalized Islam.Both causes claim to be saving the planet from the same enemy:Decadent Capitalist Infidels ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION VS GLOBAL WARMINGEnforce the borders? Too porous. Cant be done, old boy. Cloud-cuckoo stuff, Pie-in-the-sky.But changing the climate of the entire planet to some unspecified perfect state? That they can do. If they can just tax and regulate us enough.THE PROGRESSIVE WARNot only do we no longer invent, we are determined to dis-invent everything our grandparents createdOpposed to dams, which spurred the growth of CaliforniaOpposed to air conditioning, which let to the development of the SouthwestOpposed to automobiles, which extend mans reach.Ultimately, Progressives are at war with prosperity. PROGRESSIVES & RADICAL ISLAMIs it a Bizarre common cause?Progressive Left pro-gay, pro-feminist, pro-whatevers-your-bag secularistsAnd Homophobic, misogynist, anti-anything-you-dig theocratsBoth recoil from the concept of the citizenOf the free individual Entrusted to operate within his own spaceAssume his responsibilitiesExploit his potentialPROGRESSIVES & RADICAL ISLAMBoth faiths insist their tenets are beyond discussionAs disciples of the prophet Gore liked to sneer;Only another climate scientist could question the climate-science consensusAstronomers, physicists, geologists, meteorologists Were declared unqualified to enter the debate.Similarly, for an unbeliever to express a view on Islam is islamophobicPick which view is more realistic:Obama promised to lower the oceansHizb ut-Tahrir promised a global caliphateCIVILIZATION AND AMERICACLASH OF CIVILIZATIONSSAMUEL HUNTINGTON, 1996Identified three major CivilizationsSinic (China): rising economically, demographically weakMuslim: surging demographically, economically weak except oilWest:Europe - decline economically and demographicallyAmerica ?Who created the Modern World?ORGANIZATION OF ISLAMIC COOPERATIONLargest voting block in the U.N.Wants a world where Islam is beyond discussion.Controls many groups, including the Human Rights CouncilFiercely opposed to free speechFreedom of religionWomens rightsConception of human rights came from their Cairo DeclarationArticle 24; all the rights and freedoms stipulated in this Declaration are subject to the Islamic ShariaIslam is beyond questionPushing planet wide imposition of a law against defaming religion.CIVILIZATION AND RE-PRIMITIVEZED MANCivilization is not an evolution of mankind but the imposition of human good on human evil. It is not a historical inevitability. It is a battle that has to be fought every day, because evil doesnt recede willingly before the wheels of progress. - Andrew McCarthyLiberia, the Congo, Somalia, Sudan, Iran, Pakistan and North Korea;All less civilized than a couple of generations ago.OUR FUTURE?Choice between unsustainable entitlements and maintaining armed forces of global reach:Will we abandon military capability and toss the savings into the great sucking maw of social spending?Will ruling kleptocracy sleepwalk its subjects into smaller homes, cars, healthcare, lives and soft despotism so beguilingly they dont notice its over until late in the day.Will a catastrophically convulsed America descend into Balkanized ruin and social collapse on a planet with no global order with us as the most inviting target?SUMMARYThe Debt Problem HAS TO BE SOLVED.Europe is proving that socialism is a ponzi scheme.Europe is also showing us something about immigration:Immigrants who dont assimilate are just a slow invasion.U.S. Immigration could be a blessing or a curse.Western Civilization has no guarantee of survival.THE DEBT PROBLEMSOLUTIONSThe size of the Federal Government must be cut by 20-25% or more.Reduction of Entitlements must be included.Some increases of Revenue may also be needed after spending cuts are made.MedicadeMedicareSocial SecurityMilitary InterestOtherENTITLEMENTSAre the death of responsible government;are against every republican precepts.Mandate spending Regardless of government revenues or broader economic conditions,.An offense against a basic democratic principle;That a parliament cannot bind its successors.In effect, they are taxation without representationSOLUTIONS - EDUCATIONClose the Federal Department of Education and return control to the states and local governments.Regan said It is important to recognize the distinction between problems of national scope (which may require Federal action) and problems that are merely common to the States.The former should be very limitedBest way to save the United States is to give it less to do.Best way to do that is with the Tenth Amendment movement.MARGARET THATCHER APPROACHHard to close down government bodiesBut it should be possible to sell them offAlso would privatize the public sector unionsUS NEW MINORITIES2000 to 2010, white children declined by 4.3 million, Hispanic and Asian children grew by 5.5 million. White child populations dropped in 46 states and 86 of the 100 largest metro areasTen states and 35 large metro areas have minority white child populations:Added in 2010: Atlanta, Dallas, Orlando, and Phoenix 95 percent of Texass child population growth occurred among HispanicsIMMIGRATIONSOLUTIONSImmigration can be very beneficialGrowing and dynamic societyAssimilation is requiredMust become AmericanNot remake AmericaBorders must be controlledQuotas set based on U.S. need.CLINTON TEAM PLANUS is an idea nationChina, et al, are implementation nationsUS policy was shifted to letting foreign nations do manufacturingWe benefited from lower pricesBut, a large part of the US population needs jobs using hands and backs.Also, due to increased number and complexity of federal rules and regulation:Companies now simply buy from China rather than hassle with Federal rulesRE-ESTABLISH THE AMERICAN IDEALWe took our eyes off the colleges, and the high schools, and the grade schools,These and other institutions were coopted by forces deeply hostile to the American IdeaPush back, beginning in kindergartenChange the culture: the schools, the churches, the movies, the TV shows.Its more important than changing the politics.Dont wait for the right people to get elected; create the conditions whereby the wrong people are forced to do the right thing Milton FriedmanYOU CAN WIN THISThe Left tends to overreach.As they did on Climate Change scaremongering,The Hollywood buffoons will continue to lecture us from their mega-mansionsThat we should toss out our washersBeat our clothes on rocksSinging native chants down by the riverBut only suckers are listening to themAMERICANS HAVE A CHOICEWe can join most of the rest of the western world in terminal decline.Or Rediscover principles of the American ideaA limited governmentA self-reliant citizenryOpportunity for individualsBeat the Progressives and be an example to the rest of the world.BACKUPBUSH TAX CUTSCurrentPre Bush Tax Cut1015152528283133363539.6**