A paper by an Indian researcher claiming a correlation between major weather events and earthquakes.
- 1.REGIONAL WEATHER CHANGES OVER THE AUSTRALIAN REGIONS AS EARTHQUAKE PRECURSOR TO THE REGIONS SURROUNDING AUSTRALIAAbstract: My field of study and the area of interest are very narrowly confined to expose, how the weather patterns in Australia are systematically affected by geological process of the regions surrounding Australia. This same regional weather changes over Australia as precursor to respective quakes in the regions surrounding the Indian continent. The regional weather change precursor type is the one and only possible reliable prediction of any individual earthquakes. Natural hazards like Cyclones and earthquakes caused greatest risks for causalities and costly damage worldwide. With the ongoing extensive research in the formation of tropical cyclone and earthquake prediction, this article can be treated as a wake up call to the scientists for finding scientific solutions to both. The effect is not simply due to chance but to expose the flawed understanding of the cyclone formations. Instead to suppress my idea at the rudimentary level, it is quite obviously correct to analyze my findings and correlations scientifically.Keywords regional weather regional quake Australia Indonesia Southwest Pacific Islands.Introduction:There is currently no reliable way to predict the days or months when an earthquake will occur in any specific location. For seismologists and scientists, the accurate, reliable prediction of individual earthquakes is a realistic scientific goal. However it is strange to believe that except precise time, it is quite scientifically possible to predict any damaging earthquakes before it strike. Each and every form of regional weather changes is followed by respective regional quakes in a repeatable manner and the happenings of earthquakes in a given region have a recurrent pattern. There is therefore, something to be learnt from each such incident. Here the findings are observation based correlations. The onset of any regional weather changes set a time scale of advancing the regional quakes usually within 15 to 30 days. However, in a very few cases the time scales and magnitude do vary substantially as a consequence of local site geology and other factors.According to the latest study, the relations that exist between the weather changes with the seismic events are practically recorded. The scientists did not detect any slow events during the typhoon-free season. Eleven of the 20 slow earthquakes coincided with typhoons Typhoons Trigger Slow Earthquakes, by Liu, C., Linde, A. T. & Sacks, I. S. Nature 459, 833-836 (2009).The prime purpose of this paper too is a serious attempt to identifying the natures valid scientific earthquake precursors and expose, one of the most significant correlations found to exist between the all form of regional weather changes and with the subsequent respective regional quakes. This article presents new scientifically reliable way of forecasting quakes. Regional weather changes are the first evidence of the any forthcoming quakes in the respective region, however, this idea is not taken seriously by many seismologists because they were failed in their attempts. So far the unanticipated natural events like weather changes now can tell the information about the advancing quakes. Though I have my recordings around the globe but here I1
2. summarizes for the regions surrounding Australia only. Several studies have been made to predicting quakes reliably but unsuccessful so far, however I hope the weather precursor to quakes, will become a valuable seminal resource for understanding the overall relations that exist between the weather changes and the quakes and helps to mitigate the effects of future great earthquakes and tsunami like nature's fury .Here I just reproduced what I just observed- the two related events happened at different times but one event is the byproduct of another. As I am not associated with any seismological lab and I could not get necessary support to formulate my findings in a mathematical form, however Geophysicists and Seismologists can further develop these findings in a more refined way using applicable mathematical formulations.Here I am recording the regional weather changes over the Australian regions and the resulting quakes around the Australian regions. The overall weather changes in Australia are due to the geological process that surrounding the Australian regions. All of the processes that are related here started long before humans existed and will likely persist long after we have gone. CORE CONCEPT: Weather Precursor to QuakesIt is incorrect to assume that prediction of an individual earthquake is inherently impossible since other previous works have been notoriously unsuccessful. The exact success of predicting quakes reliably and accurately depends on the careful study of the respective over all regional weather changes. The causes of the geological processes within the earth, having its effects on the atmospheric anomalies indicate the necessary to understand the interdependencies of weather and quakes. Earth quake is not a long term process what the scientists now strongly believe but like weather changes it is only a short term process only few weeks to few months. For a specific quake, by means of task of identifying the regional weather changes, at this stage, it is quite possible to estimate the location & size of an impending quakes based on the quantity of flood amount; cyclone strength and the unusual blistering heat but except the exact precise time.Earthquakes are neither chaotic nor complex; it is happening quite in an orderly pattern, the sequences of regional earthquake after respective regional weather changes are repeatable. Like cyclones, the earthquakes occur in the same general patterns and originate year after year, principally in certain zones of the earth. Weather changes are the integrated phenomena of earthquakes, particularly at the origin level. No doubt, all the earthquakes have respective regional weather changes as very obvious and unambiguous precursors. Same Dynamic earth forces for all form of weather changes and the generation of seismic activity:The geological process within the earth is the direct and primary cause for all form of weather changes - the formation and strengthening of powerful tropical cyclone; days of heavy rain, massive flooding and mudslides; melting snow, heavy snowfall, fog and intense cold wave; high winds and thick plume of dust storm; blighting extreme heat waves and forest fire; massive waves hit the shores and subsequent happenings of2 3. quakes. Though the collective form of regional weather changes and the respective quakes are seem to be separate phenomena, but origin wise (geological process within the earth) all are same. Here are the collections of my study - shows the significant correlation exist between the specific regional devastating weather changes and followed by respective regional destructive earthquakes.For instance, for any specific Cyclone, after its formation, the land fall may be, even thousands of kilometers away from its origin but both the geological coordinates of the formation of cyclone and the focus of the resulting quakes have the closeness. The resulting magnitude of the quakes will also depend on the severity of the weather changes; similar to the intensity of a cyclone how depending on the temperature of ocean surface.Tropical cyclones originate on the eastern side of Oceans but move west. Most of these systems form between 10 and 30 degrees away from the equator and 87% form no farther away than 20 degrees of latitude north or south. Not only cyclones, major earthquakes and volcanism also occur along these belts, indicating that and these three disastrous activities are also often closely related and correspondingly responding the same dynamic earth forces.Methodology :The heat generating system is at the Ocean bed (Mechanical stress liberates heat energy)Normally, when any material is subjected to enormous mechanical stress, it liberates heat energy between the yield point and the tensile point.During the process of an earthquake, two blocks of the Earths crust slide past one another generating massive amounts of frictional heat. In fact, Kanamori & Brodsky (2001) describe earthquakes as thermal events more than seismic events because most of the energy release during an earthquake goes into heat rather than seismic waves.The unobserved enormous amount of frictional heat energy generated and released during the entire process of a geological process within the earth (the giant plates equivalent to 100 km thickness when brush past each other or collide with each other) prior to an earthquake(s) could be responsible for the all form overall resulting weather changes and the Sea surface warming any particular region. This large amounts of generated heat within the earth, reaches on to the Ocean surface by means of convection, and thus, large amounts of steamy water rise off the ocean, forming an area of low pressure (tropical depression). For instance, the Island regions from PNG to Tasmania encircling the entire eastern side of Australia are the birth place for scores of tropical storms every year.It is from the observations ,that any form of atrocious weather changes happened in any region, strongly illustrates the powerful seismic forces at work underground and the process for an earth quake is over in that specific region and have to wait for the large scale cracking of ground!. The duration from tensile point to break point (quakes) 3 4. tectonic plates are normally 15 to 30 days in most cases ,sometimes with numerous fore-shocks. ResultsThree basic needs for predicting quakes - fixing of Location, Magnitude and Time: (Based on the table 5)i ) Location: The geological coordinates of the geological process within the earth responsible for the regional weather changes will very closely match with the location of the resulting specific quakes in the same region. Mostly the geological coordinates of the resulting quakes will happen well within 5 degree latitude difference with that of the location of cyclone formation, but in some cases it was up to 10.ii) Magnitude: Normally any destructive regional weather changes will always followed by destructive large-magnitude quakes. Based on my observations for any Cyclone with wind speed in the category 3 and above in the Saffir-Simpson scale; week long incessant rain and huge flood associated with blazing heat, no doubt, the resulting quakes will have the Magnitude of 6 and above, however with numerous foreshocks.iii) Time Except with very few occasions, normally the time interval between the regional weather changes and the respective specific quakes will results within 10 to 15 days.By monitoring the regional weather precursors very carefully, scientists can determine what stage the earthquake is in and possible to predict when the earthquake will occur. Like seasonal weather changes, earthquakes are also having a cyclic pattern to occur year after year except its magnitude, which will vary with the extremity of the regional weather changes. ATMOSPHERIC ANOMALIESNature has no boundary, what each and every country has! The geological process of one nation will affect the weather of other neighboring nations and also sometimes cause large scale death and destruction. With the precise nature of the interaction between the atmosphere and the Ocean is not fully understood, the weather changes are the interaction between the geological process within the earth and the atmosphere and in no way to claim that solar energy alone responsible for any form of weather changes. Without any geological process probably there would be no weather changes on the surface of the earth. Regional monsoon anomalies are due to effect of the respective geological process within the earth.List of Descripancies :-Theory on Cyclone formation contrary to basic physics : 4 5. For any tropical cyclone formation, according to the existing theory, the solar heating is the initial source for evaporation. And the factors like, moisture and surface temperature distribution over water are responsible for the formation of tropical depression. In most situations, water temperatures of at least 26.5 degree C (80 degree F) are needed down to a depth of at least 50m (150 feet) for a cyclone formation.The following evidences are contrary to the theory, that the solar heating is the initial source for weather changes.1. The enormous amount of energy continuously emitted by the sun is dispersed into outer space in all directions. And only a small fraction of this energy is intercepted by the earth and other solar planets. The solar constant value is estimated on the basis of the solar radiation received on a unit area exposed perpendicularly to the rays of the sun at an average distance between the sun and the earth. It is approximately 1.4 kW/m2, or 2.0 cal/cm2/min. How this fraction of energy is converted and used into the generation of a deadly hurricane which can expend as much energy as 10,000 nuclear bombs!Both the cyclones and quakes occur in the same general patterns and originate year after year, principally in certain basins and zones of earth but unable to predict both the events precisely. If the two events are of different origin at least on one occasion and at least at one place, the both events could have happened simultaneously at least once by chance anywhere in the world, but so far not happened! It is scientifically true that the incoming solar radiation is the same on the same date irrespective of the year, the actual conditions of the surface of the tropical Oceans are by no means the same on the same date of each year. But still the prediction of a monsoon is unsuccessful, though with the help of advanced computer modeling and satellite images are available.Again it would be impossible for the scientists to predict when and where will the next cyclone will develop and what strength it can attain maximum? Because sometimes the low depression instantly die down itself with the same speed as it formed over the Ocean; sometimes develop monstrously and move violently towards the land or maintain its presence for a quite long time as long as the Ocean feeds heat energy to the storm. But quake will follow without failure.2. Further the worldwide tropical cyclone activity peaks in late summer that is in the aphelion (farthest from Sun) position of the earth with respect to the sun. If the solar energy as the primary heating source of the Ocean, then the tropical cyclones should be peak in the perihelion (nearest to Sun) position but it is contradictorily peak in the aphelion position of the earth. On a world wide scale, May is the least active month, while September is the most active month.3.No Cyclone formations over major rivers and lakes. Why? Heating the Ocean and Direction of convection: Only with the up-ward direction of convection (Surface cold water replaced by the bottom warm water), it is possible to maintain the Ocean water temperature at least 26.5 degree C (80 degree F) up to the depth of 50 meters or even more. Again this could be possible only when there is an unlimited supply of tremendous amount of heat generating system at the Ocean bed and not by means of solar heating alone over the Ocean surface for evaporation.5 6. When the solar energy is well enough to heating the Ocean then why the Cyclone formation is confined to the Ocean alone and not formed over any major rivers like Nile, Amazon or Mississippi-Missouri and over the lakes like Baikal (having depth 1620m), Tanganyika (1463m) or the Caspian Sea (1025m)? Further, after the formation of a Cyclone, it continuously intensifies not only in day times but also during the night times over the surface of the Ocean basin where it formed until it die down, that clearly indicates the solar energy in no way connected with the crucial role in the formation and strengthening of a cyclone.4. Warm Ocean water and more number of formation of cyclonic depressions around the group of Island regions Comparatively less at island free regions:Too many low depressions and quakes are happening mostly concentrated around the Island regions only. This is starting with PNG to Tasmania of South Pacific Ocean on the eastern side of Australia and on the other hand in the Western region of Australia ,only very few low depressions and quakes happens, since there are only very few Islands are there. The concentration of group of Island land masses are constantly ploughing into the Ocean and produce enormous amount of frictional heat. This frictional heat used to keep the Ocean waters warm. Hence the eastern coast of Australia is warmer than its western side. This clearly indicates that, the Ocean waters are warm only around the Island concentrated basins and clearly disproves that solar energy heats-up the Ocean water.Eastern side of Australia is densely populated with Island regions and also known for more active for Volcanoes , quakes and all form of weather changes including frequent events of storms. 5.There seems to be no relations exist between the depth and wide area of water masses responsible for the formation of cyclones world wide:For instance, large basins like south Atlantic, south Indian Ocean and even Arabian Sea (surface area is about 3,862,000 km2 (1,491,000 sq mi)) are comparatively less active for Cyclone and earthquakes with that of the much more active smaller basins like Gulf of Mexico, Baja California, Caribbean the Bay of Bengal and Mediterranean sea (area of 2.5 million km(965,000 sq mi)) .Energy Paralance : Massive Amount of Energy released by Cyclones- Quakes- Volcanoes: So far no one knows exactly how a hurricane is made. The force and the amount of energy release are so tremendous by Volcanoes, Cyclones and quakes. Table:3 Cyclone Quake Volcano Scientists at the NationalAsperUSGS, theIt was calculated that the Center for Atmospherictremendousamount of Volcano eruption of Mt. Saint Research estimate that aenergy releasedof Helens in US in 1980 tropical cyclone releases Dec.2004,M9 earthquakereleased an estimated 1.7 x 6 7. heat energy at the rate of rupture was equivalent to 10^18 Joules of energy over 50 to 200 trillion joules per 23,000 Hiroshima Bombs or a nine hour period. This is day or to exploding a 10- 20x10^17 joules.equivalentto detonating megaton nuclear bomb27,000 Hiroshima-size every 20 minutes. In fact,nuclear bombs at the rate of during its life cycle a one detonation per second hurricane can expend as over a 7.5 hour period. The much energy as 10,000 temperature of the ejecta at nuclear bombs!the mouth must be of the order of 900 degree Celsius and by the time it reaches the sea it cools down to 500 600 degree Celsius.CONCLUSION:Every individual Quake coming with weather precursor of prior warningsJust as the Coriolis force has its effect on the spiraling hurricane shape, the orbital motion of the earth with respect to the Sun responsible for the seasonal variations on the earth. In that way, if the seasonal variation on the earth theory is valid scientifically, then the orbital motion of the earth with respect to the Sun alone responsible for the driving force tectonic plate motion and the generation of quakes on the earth. This is why both the inclement weather changes and quakes are continuous, uncertain and repeatable. Every individual Quake coming with weather precursor as prior warningsJust as the Coriolis force has its effect on the spiraling hurricane shape, the orbital motion of the earth with respect to the Sun responsible for the seasonal variations on the earth. In that way, if the seasonal variation on the earth theory is valid scientifically, then the orbital motion of the earth with respect to the Sun alone responsible for the driving force tectonic plate motion and the generation of quakes on the earth. This is why both the inclement weather changes and quakes are continuous, uncertain and repeatable.Discussion and Conclusion:1. No cyclone formation over major rivers and lakes and the Island free basins.2 If the solar energy is the prime source of Cyclone formation then more cyclone formation will happen at the perihelion position of the earth with respect to the Sun but no such correlation observed.3. Regions with group of island land masses in the Oceans are warmer than the island free regions indicates constant seismic activities at work.4. At the Island free regions the seismic activities are considerably less.5. Seasonal effects are due to the position of the earth with respect to the Sun and the same orbital motion of the earth around the sun triggers constant large-scale effects of plate tectonics. 7 8. Finally when all these factors are taken into account, it can be observed that the weather changes are not having any surface origin but often very closely related to earthquakes and both responding the same dynamic earth forces.In this article the use of the word precursor is more appropriate and safer than the use of the word prediction of quakes. It should be emphasized that my findings in the last one year up to the largest recent quakes in Chile and the deadliest quake in Haiti have the atrocious weather changes as precursor is significant to mention here. With every specific weather change worldwide, the process for a specific quake is over. The origin of the weather changes are the byproduct of the geological process within the earth. Certainly a specific weather changes are exactly co-incided with the specific quakes. By watching even the smallest weather changes, scientists may be able to predict quakes more accurately and warn populations of impending disaster. Yes, the count down for a powerful quake will start, once the very heavy rain is over anywhere in the world!I wish to express my gratitude towards the reviewers of this manuscript. I am also very much grateful to (Late) Prof.Dr.K.V.Gopalakrishnan, Department of Mechanical Engineering, ICEL, Indian Institute of Technology, Madras, Adyar, Chennai. India for his valuable insightful comments and correction and also thanks to my relative Mr.S.Nagarajan, (0091-9443517353) M.E(Civil Engg), Salem, Tamilnadu,India for his valuable suggestions.References1.Hurricanes: The greatest Storms on Earth, by Steve Graham and Holli Riebeek. November 1, 2006. 2. Earthquake data has been collected from USGSData Taken From:http://www.wunderground.com/ http://www.gdacs.org/flood/ http://weather.yahoo.com/ http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/ http://www.accuweather.com/news.asp http://www.abc.net.au/news/tag/weather/ http://earthquake.usgs.gov/ http://topics.cnn.com/topics/earthquakesThe sequence of regional earthquake after respective regional weather changes are repeatable.Here the Specific Regional weather changes are correlated with Specific Regional quakes:8 9. There are FIVE different geological regions surrounding Australia that affecting the weather patterns continuously over the Australian regions:1. The geological process of the land masses - PNG, Solomon Islands, D'entrecasteaux Islands region,Santa Cruz Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia and Loyalty Islands, Fiji, Samoa and American Samoa and Tonga, responsible for all kind of weather changes predominantly over Australias eastern coast -entire Queensland and north of New South Wales.REGION OF WEATHER CHANGESREGIONS OF QUAKES WILL OCCUR PRECURSOR TO QUAKES. All kind of weather changesThe geological process of the land predominantly over Australias eastern masses - PNG, Solomon Islands, coast -entire Queensland and north D'entrecasteaux Islands region,Santa of New South Wales.Cruz Islands, Vanuatu, NewCaledonia and Loyalty Islands, Fiji,Samoa and AmericanSamoa and Tonga,2. The geological process of the land masses - Kermadec islands, Norfolk Island, Auckland Islands, New Zealand, Macquarie Island, Tasmanian regions,and Western Indian-Antarctic Ridge responsible for all kind of weather changes predominantly over South Australia, Victoria and up to north NSW,TasmaniaPrecursor for Quakes in South Pacific Islands: REGIONS AFFECTED BY WEATHERREGIONS AT WHICH QUAKES WILL CHANGES AS PRECURSOR TOOCCUR CORRESPONDINGLY QUAKES. All kind of weather changes predominantlyThe geological process of the land South Australia, Victoria and up to north masses - Kermadec islands, Norfolk NSW,Tasmania Island, Auckland Islands, New Zealand, Macquarie Island, Tasmanian regions,and Western Indian-Antarctic Ridge. 9 10. 3. The geological process of the land masses WESTERN INDIAN-ANTARCTIC RIDGE responsible for all kind of weather changes predominantly over Australia's south- west and Perth. REGIONAL WEATHER CHANGESRESPECTIVE REGIONAL QUAKES WESTERN INDIAN-ANTARCTIC RIDGE Australia's south-west and Perth4. The geological process of the land masses - FLORES REGION, BANDA REGION,KEP. TANIMBAR REGION, KEPULAUAN BABAR INDONESIA, NEW GUINEA (PAPUA NEW GUINEA), CELEBES SEA, MOLUCCA SEA and Timor Region responsible for all kind of weather changes predominantly over Northern Australia and Darwin regions. REGIONS AFFECTED BY WEATHERREGIONS AT WHICH QUAKES WILL CHANGES AS PRECURSOR TOOCCUR CORRESPONDINGLY QUAKES. All kind of weather changesThe geological process of the land masses predominantly over Northern Australia- FLORES REGION, BANDA REGION,KEP.1 11. and Darwin regions. TANIMBAR REGION, KEPULAUAN BABAR INDONESIA, NEW GUINEA (PAPUA NEW GUINEA), CELEBES SEA, MOLUCCA SEA and Timor Region 5. To the best of my efforts I documented both the events in a very careful manner.1 12. Record snow fall for Mount Hotham Quake of M7.0 (M5.2,5.1) - SOUTH Aug. 24, 2010 ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND (Christchurch), 2010 September 03; Location:43.530S, 172.120E ;Depth:5km. Mount Hotham(Victoria) has recorded its highest August snowfalls in almost a decade. In the past seven days 51 centimetres of snow have been recorded, taking the tally to 142 centimetres for the month. Wild weather hits Adelaide Hills Thu Aug 26, 2010Strong winds and heavy rain overnight toppled trees and caused a landslide in the Adelaide Hills.Flood warning for north-east VictoriaSun Aug 29, 2010 Heavy rain has caused significant stream rises in the Ovens, Buffalo and King River catchments near Wangaratta. The Ovens River is above minor flood levels at Wangaratta at 12.1 metres.Coldest Canberra winter in a decadeTue Aug 31, 2010 Canberra has experienced its coldest winter daytime temperatures in 10 years. Daytime temperatures averaged 12.6 degrees while overnight minimums averaged 2 degrees. Victoria on flood watch as storms approach Sep. 3,2010 Approaching storms could be the most significant weather event in Victoria for the past 15 years. A low-pressure system could bring rainfalls of up to 150 millimetres across the north- west, north and north-east overnight and tomorrow, and could cause flooding problems for months. South Australia: Gale Force1 13. Sep.4,2010Gale force winds ripped through the state this afternoon. Wind gusts of over 100 kilometres-an-hour have been recorded in various locations. 1