Extreme Weather and Climate events, livelihoods ... ? Extreme Weather and Climate events, livelihoods,

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  • Doc Ref no: GLM_IPCC-SREX_20 -22 October 2013.1

    Extreme Weather and Climate events, livelihoods, infrastructures and

    Socio-economics

    Rudzani MalalaSouth African Weather Service

    Regional Manager: Gauteng, Limpopo, Mpumalanga078 546 3900

    rudzani.malala@weathersa.co.za

    20-22 October 2013 IPCC-SREX Seminar

  • CONTENT

    Doc Ref no: GLM_UN-ISDR_14 October 2013.1

  • Introduction and OverviewExtremeweatherandclimateeventsareincreasinginfrequency,intensity,spatialextent,durationandtiming.

    Studieshaveshownthatextremeweatherandclimateeventsaffectthemostvulnerablecommunitiesmostlyruralpoorandpeoplelivingwithdisabilities,notwithstandingthecoastalcommunitiesasaresultofchangingclimate.

    BuildingResiliencetoextremeweathereventsasaresultofClimateChangethroughAdaptationisthewaytogo

    DisasterRiskReductioniseverybodysbusiness,noonesectorcanachievethedesiredresultsalone,hencecollectiveeffortiscritical.

  • Changing Climate

  • Extreme Weather and Climate Hazards

    Thunderstorms(flashfloods,lightning,thundershowers,hail,strongwinds)

    Tornadoes(violentwinds,heavythundershowers)

    TropicalCyclone(floods,strongwinds)

    HeatWaves(extremelyhightemperatures)

    ColdfrontsandCutoffLow(floods,extremecoldconditions,snow,wetandwindyconditions)

    Drought(dryconditions,scarcewaterresources,adverseimpactonfarming).

    Veld Fires(adverseeconomiclosses)

  • This is where our cold fronts come from

    Eumetsat 8

    Airmass RGB= (5-6,8-9,5)

    1700Z 28-06-08

    Weather and Climate Forecasting

  • Entrainment of cold polar, sub-polar air-

    mass

    Entrainment of warm sub-tropical air-mass

    Eumetsat 8

    Airmass RGB= (5-6,8-9,5)

    1700Z 28-06-08

    Weather and Climate Forecasting

  • Entrainment of cold polar, sub-polar air-

    mass

    Entrainment of warm sub-tropical air-mass

    Eumetsat 8

    Airmass RGB= (5-6,8-9,5)

    1700Z 28-06-08

    Damaging winds

    Weather and Climate Forecasting

  • Entrainment of cold polar, sub-polar air-

    mass

    Entrainment of warm sub-tropical air-mass

    Eumetsat 8

    Airmass RGB= (5-6,8-9,5)

    1700Z 28-06-08

    Heavy rainfall

    Weather and Climate Forecasting

  • Entrainment of warm sub-tropical air-mass

    Eumetsat 8

    Airmass RGB= (5-6,8-9,5)

    1700Z 28-06-08

    Rough seas

    Weather and Climate Forecasting

  • Entrainment of cold polar, sub-polar air-

    mass

    Entrainment of warm sub-tropical air-mass

    Advection of cold sub-polar air-mass

    Eumetsat 8

    Airmass RGB= (5-6,8-9,5)

    1700Z 28-06-08

    Weather and Climate Forecasting

  • Entrainment of cold polar, sub-polar air-

    mass

    Entrainment of warm sub-tropical air-mass

    Advection of cold sub-polar air-mass

    Eumetsat 8

    Airmass RGB= (5-6,8-9,5)

    1700Z 28-06-08

    Landslides

    Weather and Climate Forecasting

  • This is where our cold fronts come from

    Entrainment of cold polar, sub-polar air-

    mass

    Entrainment of warm sub-tropical air-mass

    Advection of cold sub-polar air-mass

    Eumetsat 8

    Airmass RGB= (5-6,8-9,5)

    1700Z 28-06-08

    Heavy rainfall

    Damaged infrastructure

    Weather and Climate Forecasting

  • This is where our cold fronts come from

    Entrainment of cold polar, sub-polar air-

    mass

    Entrainment of warm sub-tropical air-mass

    Advection of cold sub-polar air-mass

    Eumetsat 8

    Airmass RGB= (5-6,8-9,5)

    1700Z 28-06-08

    Heavy rainfall

    Snow

    Weather and Climate Forecasting

  • Courtesy: Eumetsat

    Ex-Tropical Cyclone Favio now developed Tropical Low

    Cold Fronts

    Extra Tropical Cyclone Gamede

    Tropical Temperate

    Trough

    Very Cold Air Mass

    Swell

    Wind

    Freak waves

    Freak waves

    15

    Extreme Weather related systems

  • Observed extreme weather and climate events Year Events

    1991/22003/42007/8

    Drought in Southern Africa

    2000200620082010201120122013

    Floods in Limpopo, Mpumalanga, KZN and Flashfloods in Gauteng due to Tropical Storms/Cyclones). (Eline, Gamede, Dando, Ethel, Funso, Giovanna, Irina).8 provinces declared disaster area in 2010 due to extreme events where over 100 people died(September 2012 snow storm) Western Cape and Eastern Cape get floods/ flashfloods almost every year due to frontal and cut off low weather systems.

    ??? What have learnt from all these extreme events?

  • Impact of Extreme Weather and Climate Hazards

    Damagedinfrastructure

    Displacedcommunities

    Impactonlivelihoods

    Severeeconomicloss

    Lostagriculturalland

  • Weather Warnings were issued from the 14th Jan

    Heavy rains started on the 15th Jan Continued up to the 21st Jan 618.4mm recorded from 15th 21st

    Jan in Thohoyandou where 282.2 mm was recorded in one day (21stJan).

    15 deaths were reported, houses damaged/collapsed, bridges washed away and thousands of people affected in Vhembe ad Mopani districts. 19

    January 2013 Floods in Limpopo

  • Lives were reported lost, Houses damaged/ collapsed, Bridges washed away and Thousands of people affected Cost estimate was over R1 bil

    20

    Impact on local communities

  • Forecasting Extreme Weather and Climate Hazards

    WeatherForecasts(nowcasting,mediumtermandseasonal)

    RemoteSensinginformation(Satellite,RADAR,LDNandWebcams)

    SevereWeatherWarnings

    FireDangerwarnings

    DroughtWatch

  • Advisory (3-6 days)

    Watch (1-3 days)

    Warnings (24hrs)No

    WarningAdvisory:Beaware

    Watch:Beprepared

    WarningTakeaction

    Early Warning System

  • SAWS together with the Department of Environmental Affairs and Disaster Management Structures (National, Provincial, District and Local municipalities embarked on:

    DRRworkshops AwarenessCampaignonExtremeWeatherandClimateevents VulnerableCommunityoutreachprograms ParticipateinCareerexhibitionsandScienceWeek YouthSummit

    Preparedness

  • Conclusion and Recommendations

    Whilst the debate and conversations about the Climate Change continues, lets not forget that Action Now is what we need.

    Local Community involvement is critical Nothing for us without us.

    Extreme Weather and Climate events are becoming more real and common, therefore, working together we can build disaster resilient communities and finding sustainable solutions.

  • Thank you!

    Observed extreme weather and climate events