Future Technology Trends For the Ultra Broadband Era Mark Winther, Group VP Telecom Broadband, Speed, Traffic Flows, Experience OTT engagement model Technology Futures Access, Video, Optronics, Virtualization Future broadband challenges Agenda Broadband Connections Pass 1 billion in 2016 WW Fixed Broadband Connections (millions) Drivers Multi-screen High definition++ Online gaming OTT/IP TV User-generated content Enablers Video futures Photonic chip futures Network virtualization 728 805 882 950 1015 1074 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: IDC Worldwide Telecom Services Database, July 2013. Speed Matters 100 Mb/s is the New 10 Mbp/s Speed upgrades at no extra charge. Synchronous services that match upload speeds with download speeds at no extra charge. Solid ARPU driven by uptake of multi-play and TV services From 3 Mb 6 Mb 12 Mb 15 Mb 30 Mb 50 Mb 100 Mb To 20 Mb 50 Mb 100 Mb 200 Mb 300 Mb 500 Mb 1 Gb 1 Tb Changing Traffic Patterns Cloud & social are pushing more content UP the network All Internet sharing starts with uploading Smarter home gateways drive more content being moved around Enhanced Media Servers Multiple tuners, terabytes of storage What Happens When 50B Machines Connect Dramatically broad range of traffic patterns Challenge traffic engineering and management Demand new service definitions (SLAs) Smart Watch Chatty, Low bandwidth Smart Train Session-based Enormous bandwidth Ultra BB is More than a Build & Sales Property Management Network Marketing Distribution Product Create fiber-ready buildings & neighbor-hoods Relations with property mngrs Community relationships Incorporate intelligence into build planning Lower cost equipment External deployment Target tenants & property owners Build brand equity for fiber ready areas Create fiber brand elements for SMB New seller tools to target neighbor-hoods & buildings Service delivery links for process improvement Competitive priced E2E fiber services Lower cost/lower SLA services Consumer-like experience for SMB. It is a transformation of the way to build and sell Customer Experience Better segmentation continuum of needs How do you know when Facebook goes down? Fundamental flaw in managing customer experience. How do you monitor to know you have a problem, and how do you respond when a customer does have a problem? Digital first experience Self-service portals for subscriber self-monitoring Embracing sophisticated users Passive User Non-use of video streaming services and/or downloads Power User Frequent use of video streaming services and/or downloads OTT Engagement Model Fat Dumb Pipe Standard business model owning the customer, providing the infrastructure. Little value-added beyond speed. Demand grows faster than revenue. Smart Pipe Evolved brokerage model -- Add value to subscriber and to OTT provider. Monetization through: policy control, billing, subscriber and network intelligence, CDNs, APIs. OTT Participation Model TV Everywhere TV/web interaction Open platform for service mash-up Access Technologies Trends FTTH speeds are impressive, but expensive Objectives Prolong the copper lifecycle Integration of copper, fiber, wireless Optimize DSL and copper in rural areas Targeted fiber rollout Transition from DSL to fiber in densely populated fiber-hoods FTTdp and FTTB can be 30% cheaper than FTTH Wireless local loop Economically extend the reach FTTB CO CO Fiber FTTC/N Street Cabinet Copper FTTdp Fiber Copper/VDSL CO Emergence of Mixed Economies, Multi-Access Network CO Fiber Wireless Local Loop CO Video Futures A Better Visual Experience Data will increase by 65x in next few years 4K UHDTV = 4 times the bandwidth of a HD signal 8K UHDTV = 16 times the bandwidth of a HD signal 4K HD SD 8K 4K/8K will be the first format that is Internet only. -Reed Hastings, Netflix Photonic Chip Futures - Towards 1 Tb/s Electrical Elements Photonic Elements.. Cost Greener Density Power Size Multiple photonic components integrated onto a single chip, similar to the electronic integrated circuit. Benefits of photonic integration are higher density, lower power, less space and lower TCO. Improves network efficiency as we evolve to higher bit rates. Network Futures - Virtualization Real things Multi-vendor interconnect. Failover and resiliency in software. Quick failure service designs. User controls, Role and extent of orchestration, SDN interconnect, Virtual CPE, APIs are difficult to use. Benefits Operators are committed DT TeraStream Telefonica UNICA AT&T Domain 2.0 Many others It is not about 100% or nothing The Programmable Network increases agility, reduces costs and speeds innovation applications. Future Broadband Challenges Vastly diverse use cases Videos and social feeds = speed, Applications & devices = reliability. Demand more atomic tools Monitoring, Understanding bandwidth usage, Smart congestion management, Software-defined networks, Big data.