Impact Calculus Position

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Impact Calculus

y Three basic types of impact calculus 1. Probability (one impact is more likely) e.g. Economic collapse is more probable than an outbreak of grey goo therefore, the risk of economic collapse outweighs the risk of a grey goo disaster. 2. Timeframe (one impact will happen faster) e.g. An asteroid impact will cause extinction before Global warming will, therefore an asteroid Impact outweighs Global Warming. 3. Magnitude (one impact is bigger) e.g. Nuke war kills more people than car accidents. y Other types of impact calculus 1. Impact inclusivity (one impact is inclusive of the other) e.g. Global war is inclusive of a Taiwan war, therefore global war outweighs Taiwan war. 2. X creates Y (one impact causes the other impact to happen) e.g. War causes genocide, therefore war outweighs genocide

3. Internal link short-circuiting (one impact prevents a positive impact from happening) e.g. Nuke war halts clean air efforts in U.S, therefore nuclear war outweighs clean air efforts.

4. Reversibility e.g. Civil liberties lost in the name of security during a time of crisis can be restored later, but deaths caused by a lack of security are irreversible. 5. Pre-Fiat (as opposed to Post-Fiat) e.g. Actual in-round education and actions should be weighed more than imaginary post-fiat impacts.

Framework arguments can also be considered impact calculus. Arguments as to why the judge should adopt a utilitarian or consequentialist perspective or conversely a deontological perspective may change the way they compare impacts.


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