Trending

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Trending & Sideways market Trading Every trader needs a trend to make money. If you think about it, no matter what the technique, if there is not a trend after you buy, then you will not be able to sell at higher prices..."Following" is the next part of the term. We use this word because trend followers always wait for the trend to shift first, then "follow" it. One of the first rules of trend following is that price is the main concern. Traders may use other indicators showing where price may go next or what it should be but as a general rule these should be given less weightage. A trader need only be worried about what the market is doing, not what the market might do. The current price and only the price tells you what the market is doing. Money Management: Another decisive factor of trend following is not the timing of the trade or the indicator, but rather the decision of how much to trade over the course of the trend. Risk Control: Cut losses is the rule. This means that during periods of higher market volatility, the trading size is reduced. During losing periods, positions are reduced and trade size is cut back. The main objective is to preserve capital until more positive price trends reappear. Rules: Trend following should be systematic. Price and time are pivotal at all times. A Predictive market trading algorithm or Trading System is defined as a calculable set of trading rules that uses either technical analysis and/or Elliott wave analysis and results in entry, exit and stop loss trade price points. Trading algorithms are not exclusive to swing trading and are also used for day trading and long term trading. Trading algorithms/systems may lose their profit potential when their strategies obtain enough of a mass following to curtail their effectiveness: "Now it's an arms race. Everyone is building more sophisticated algorithms, and the more competition exists, the smaller the profits," The markets are said to be trending sideways most of the time. During this time they can be quite volatile. It is for that reason that many traders have come to loath them. However some traders actually prefer sideways trending markets over trending markets. The bulls and the bears are in this together, scratching their heads and wondering what‟s going to happen next. Up and down, down and up. As soon as you think you know where the stock market is going, it doesn‟t…An increasing amount of money has been flowing into fast-trading (and often short-selling) hedge funds that may be whipsawing the market with their staccato trading patterns…What‟s a small-time investor to do? Perhaps it sounds facile, but the best thing to do with a sideways trending market is “not much.” Sideways trends can be found inside support and resistance levels that are near each other. Inside the trading trend line the price still fluctuates, but with rather small ups and downs. A sideways trend is said to be broken when the price goes outside the previous limitations of the trend line. You might like to make sure that the price goes outside the barrier of the trend line twice before being sure the sideways trend is broken. Pivot Points Trading (The Most Basic) Using pivot points as a trading strategy has been around for a long time and was originally used by floor traders. This was a nice simple way for floor traders to have some idea of where the market was heading during the course of the day with only a few simple calculations. The pivot point is the level at which the market direction changes for the day. Using some simple arithmetic and the previous days high, low and close, a series of points are derived. These points can be critical support and resistance levels. The pivot level, support and resistance levels calculated from that are collectively known as pivot levels. Every day the market you are following has an open, high, low and a close for the day. This information basically contains all the data you need to use pivot points.The reason pivot points are so popular is that they are predictive as opposed to lagging. Because so many traders follow pivot points you will often find that the market reacts at these levels. This give you an opportunity to trade. If the market opens above the pivot point then the bias for the day is long trades. If the market opens below the pivot point then the bias for the day is for short trades. The three most important pivot points are R1, S1 and the actual pivot point. The general idea behind trading pivot points are to look for a reversal or break of R1 or S1. By the time the market reaches R2,R3 or S2,S3 the market will already be overbought or oversold and these levels should be used for exits rather than entries. A perfect set would be for the market to open above the pivot level and then stall slightly at R1 then go on to R2. You would enter on a break of R1 with a target of R2 and if the market was really strong close half at R2 and target R3 with the remainder of your position. If, after starting the day above the Pivot, the Price crosses back through the Pivot, the Pivot will act as a Resistance area. Pivot Points and Support and Resistance levels behave exactly like any historical Support and Resistance level. Unfortunately life is not that simple and we have to deal with each trading day the best way we can.Combine these with simple channeling, retracement levels, past critical supports & resistances, SAR will enhance the success rate. Pivot Points - Trading Methodology: To make the discussion a bit less abstract, let's take a most superficial look at some simple trading methodology employing Pivot Points. Step 1 "In general, if the day's Price Action starts above the Pivot, it will tend to stay above the Pivot. This simple observation provides the basic rules for two of the simplest Pivot trading systems. System 1: Open is above Pivot: Buy Open is below Pivot: Sell System 2: Place Buy and Sell stops bracketing the Pivot. Whichever is not filled acts as safety stop for the other. These "systems" are very much too raw for my tastes. Too much chance of getting whipsawed. Let's take it one step deeper. Let's refine these simple systems just a bit more: Step 2 First Fundamental Of Pivot Trading After the opening range (first 15-30 min. to one hour), if price is above/below the Pivot, Price Action will strongly tend to remain above/below the Pivot for the session. Although this rule bids us to wait out the Opening Range and thus avoid much of the wildness and whipsawing, overlooking the next Fundamental Of Pivot Trading could be disastrous: Step 3 If the market opens, or later trades at the extremes (R2, R3 or S2, S3), it will exhibit a tendency to trade back toward the Pivot. Thus, the general rule, 'Avoid buying the High or selling the Low', becomes increasingly more stringent as price moves farther from the Pivot. I have picked 5 days of last week and what follows are some ideas on how you could have traded those days using pivot points. ........................26.10.09-Monday....................... .........................27.10.09Tuesday.................... .........................28.10.09Wednesday................. .........................29.10.09Thursday................. .........................30.10.09Friday.................... .......Week starting 26.10(Mon) to 30.10(Fri)..... Keep those weekly, daily Pivots and fine tune them to perfection Nifty intra day trading-ORB Todays first 15 minute range is 2921 to 2861. (Opening Range Breakout) First trade should be on the breakout side.. On the upside 2965/2975/2990 resistance....(For higher levels see the earlier post) On the downside 2780 likely to hold as supports.. At 10.27 AM, I am increasing the break down level to 2886. At 10.29AM, it has broken the 2921 & a long trade initiated ..SL at 2886 At 10.51AM SL increased to 2910. At 10.59AM increased the SL to 2920. At 11.05AM increased the SL to 2930. At 11.08AM..Stopped out..Now to wait for a new low & a +ve divergence in 5 minute chart.. How to combine EW with macd RENU asked about reading EW with macd: Illustrated here with "IOC" & "Nifty" chart:(I have chosen IOC as it is not manipulated, nevertheless widely traded in its sector) 1. When the down trend is nearing its "oversold" &" public apathy" & "Panic" situation, you will notice a +ve div in the down move's 4th & 5th wave down OR in "b" & "c" down OR in "c4" & "c5", there by identifying the start of the 1 st wave. 2. First wave generally gets exhausted with the macd moving into +ve area and this can be fine tuned with the help of hour charts. In underperformers, macd may find it difficult to get into positive territory but moves closer to "0". 3. In the Second wave, macd moves back into negative once again. In outperformers, macd may stay above "0" but moves down closer to "0". 4. Third wave upmove takes macd strongly up to the extreme upsides. Then. in outperformers the macd may move down with prices continuing to move up and as the macd moves up again, prices move much higher. This is where the "novice" investors/ traders read the direction of the macd with prices quite literally and miss a huge upmove..Exhaustion in this uptrend can be gauged from the "gaps", "volume" as well as following the 3rd wave subdivisions in the "hourly charts". 5. Fourth wave moves become triangles to carry out time correction if the third wave was very steep and swift Or an alternation to the second wave(if 2nd is flat, then the 4th is zigzag and vice versa). In underperformers, the macd moves into negative while in outperformers it stays above "0" but comes well off its high reading to set itself for a negative divergence base. 6. Fifth wave or the "froth" or the "speculative move" will bring in mostly the retailers with a herd kind of move to new highs while the macd making a lower high thereby developing a negative divergence. In a strongly trending markets, the 5th wave gets extended with series of negative divergences frustrating the bears and confounding the bulls and the falls happen with a sudden reversal when complacency sets into bulls. 7. During the reversal, the first wave down takes the macd into negative territory and the second wave up into positive and the cycle repeats itself in the opposite direction. Sounds simple..But as you watch the prices move on your monitor, you generally tend to forget all your lessons. Best EW practioners have "military discipline" in them..those who mean business ...be it in any phase/ aspect of life. When a trading competition was held in the USA for EW practitioners, most of the toppers had military background which gave them the edge over others in carrying out the commands without questioning. All the EW followers will admit that the most difficult part of EW practice is "to believe in what one sees" . Correct labeling of the charts once the moves are over for posterity is easy . Needless to say here that "you are right only when you make money" and that is "act when you should without questioning". Trend following & Tech. Table reading.. There are various time cycles operating in the market all the time like monthly, weekly, daily, hourly, 5-minute, etc and each has their own trend. For eg.We have presently the weekly trend down, daily attempting & nearly achieving a reversal, hourly turning up on Thursday and so on. To confirm a trend, market need to close above or below 5 ema. Why ema? Because they give more weightage to the recent price action unlike the simple moving average which gives equal weightage to the last 5 days closes. And also the slow macd (Difference between 12 & 26 ema) should be up and above its trigger (9 sma of macd).Why 5 ? 5 trading days a week..Besides, I have found it to be stable , though some use 3, 4 etc. If I wait for a daily buy signal, I miss 200 points from the bottom before the trend turns up. And after the trend turns up , market pulls back as a correction before rallying further and you may end up holding at higher levels for a brief period of time. So we look for the hourly trend to take position but this should be done only when the daily is in oversold status. Similarly when the hourly is in oversold status, look at 5 minute to give you a buy signal for a possible reversal in hourly.On the fateful 27th Oct, Nifty's low of 2253 was accompanied by an excellent +ve divergence which helped to take a buy call even before the hourly buy signal. If you see the Tech table in which Market is shown to be down in weekly (always closing below 5 ema) and in daily (Closed above 5 ema but macd is yet to move above the trigger and still closed below the 5 high ema). 5 High ema tells you the upward momentum in Nifty. As long as it closes below it, it is sell on rises.(So for Monday, Nifty needs to close above 2750 (high ema) to sustain the Friday's momentum..Just intra rally above 2750 is not enough). If it closes above it, then buy on dips & hold longs.Use it in conunction with weekly, daily, hourly. 5 Low ema tells you the downward momentum in Nifty. As long as it closes below it, it is hold shorts.If it closes above it, it is buy on dips & sell on rises till it closes above 5 high ema. In simple terms ....Up & buy on dips above 5 high ema ....dn & sell on rises below 5 low ema ....sideways & trade supports & resistances as long as it closes inbetween 5 high ema & 5 low ema. These are certain indicative tools and not an absolute one for trading. Use always channels for your trading along with other supportive indicators. the primary guide should be prices and that travels within channels most of the time. Channels most often break during a 4th wave. So keep that in mind. (Eg. Say a downtrend develops in to a 5 sub waves. After 1 dn, then 2nd up, then a 3rd dn and now on its 4th up. Draw a line connecting 1st bottom and the 3rd bottom. Bring a parallel line touching the 2nd top and you will find the 4th wave breaking this top trend line briefly and move back into the channel and make a low and then rise breaking this channel decisively. Barring these, Channels offer excellent trading guides. Observe in all the "SAR" charts posted here, how these channels have helped in intra days and even helped in avoiding whipsaws. Finally, an interesting article about the recent financial meltdown...you may have read the first few paragraphs already elsewhere but the last few paragraphs are the surprising ones. don't miss them. Friday, October 12, 2012 Nifty Intraday Update-I For a person who trades based on just the JNSAR number, the JNSAR for 11th was "5720" and it triggered only @ 3.29PM and hence the close can not be above it. And the JNSAR shorts would have remained and it will have the JNSAR trigger for the day @ 5714. Since I had a bullish view in the ST & have been suggesting a reversal from either Thu/Fri around the 1st major support @ 5640 and a reversal did take place, I took 12th JNSAR after 3.00PM & taken a long trade. The conservative trade SL@5655(80% of the rise from 5637 to 5721) protected & Nifty took support @ 5659(73.6%) due to adverse Infy news(Note BN did not have such a sharp fall). There are two options here: A. Reverse the trade @ 5694 with a SAR @ 5714. B. Hold the long trade with 5682(21 Hr sma as SL for an hour & raise the SL higher later) Do not come into the market unprepared. And once prepared, do not waver. Remember your preparation should have plans for contingencies/ for the unexpected happenings. There are choices to be made and there is a small price to it if you act systematically. Posted by Ilango at 10:03 AM 46 comments Labels: JNSAR Thursday, May 3, 2012 Links to this post Nifty Pre-Market View. Crorepathi said:I have a methodology for beginners to learn JNSAR trading, which some of my friends are doing successfully 1. Select few scrips of nifty 50 i.e Tata motors, Wipro and RIL 2. Buy just 2 stocks when JNSAR long triggers and sell when JNSAR triggers and no shorts as these are stocks. 3. Do for a month with 3 stocks and move to NIFTY BEES. 4. Once well versed with nifty bees move to mininifty then to nifty futures. Advantages: Low investment i.e - not more than Rs.5000. As any 3 of the stocks will be triggering now and then, the learning process will be quickened. As these are stocks, one can hold without loosing capital. ilango says: Whenever Nifty is closing between DHEma and DLEma, it is in a range bound mode and one should accordingly part book @ resistances and supports(Trade). We have been posting & alerting such resistances and supports regularly. Take advantage of them. Evolve into a better traders by applying the right kind of discipline to various kinds of markets. There is a market to hold and there is a market to trade and there are markets to stay away too. Read more » Posted by Ilango at 8:06 AM 49 comments Labels: JNSAR Tuesday, April 24, 2012 Links to this post Nifty PreMarket View Dear Raichand Shah, Many, many Happy returns of the day. --------------------------------------------------------------------"5234-5263"-38%, 50%, 61.8% retracements and DLEma, DEma reside and is an ideal zone to initiate sell with 5286(80%) as a SL. Though Hour TA is oversold for a mild bounce, day TA has confirmed a down and hence use the bounces to initiate sells. The depth of the correction would depend on 27th & 30th April closes(Week & Month) Falling below month's JNSAR-5092 should ring in the first alarm bells. "5077" a critical low made during the 4531 to 5630 may be considered as a major trigger for downsides. --------------------------------------------------------------------Dinesh Rishi has stated simply " Longs above SAR and Shorts below SAR". Can it get ever simpler than this. A number good enough to reflect this sentiment is JNSAR. To Manage the trade when SAR is being triggered, we have few options and the same is being discussed and written about under the label "JNSAR". Read them first before posing your queries. When Nifty breaches JNSAR number, does it require a "certification" from an experienced hand to announce "JNSAR triggered". If you do need one, what you lack is not knowledge but belief, conviction and confidence. No one could give you that. YOU have to take baby steps and expose yourself to the market with YOUR trades and gain confidence. How long are you going to sit around and procrastinate..? Make up your mind and do not waste anymore of your precious life and those of others. Lord Krishna says, "In doing your karma, all your negatives dissolve." Action alone will resolve and action based on sound judgement will make it easier. Need we say more. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Read more » Posted by Ilango at 6:31 AM 61 comments Labels: JNSAR Friday, March 2, 2012 Links to this post Nifty PreMarket View There are cluster of resistances(1st) around 5365-80 zone-21Hr sma/34Hr Sma/5DEma. By closing above LEmas, trading action come into play. Above the 1st Res..comes 5405-5415 zone. And then the 5427-80% of last fall beyond which some more upsides. 5320-30 is the floor line/ support presently which will be raised as the day progresses. Do not discuss JNSAR..it is just a number. (You could choose your own & still do wonders with a strong belief). I'm just keeping the mystery intact for those "less confident/ conviction trader" to follow it blindly. Don't spoil their belief. If it gives them money, it is their GOD. Please do not discuss JNSAR...I mean it. Read more » Posted by Ilango at 7:00 AM 57 comments Labels: Elliott wave, JNSAR Tuesday, February 7, 2012 Links to this post Nifty continues to display many reversal patterns in the day T/F. I am raised as a Hindu and when people talk to me about religion, I show them my religion's potential, its rich heritage. My closest friends are from Islam, Christianity, Sikhism, Jainism & Buddhism. I respect their religions and they respect mine. No religion has shown God in person. No one has seen God and proved it to the world. It is one's belief...faith that holds their life together...keeps them centered in joy & sorrows...in trials and tribulations. I feel God in everything I do and I strongly believe in all the Gods of Hindu religion. To some, they may be Just Stones but to me & to many, they are real and I never felt the urge to prove it to anyone. So what if someone questions the presence of my God. In this House, JNSAR is God. Many follow it like it is their own religion. Any problems? Why do you come to the market? For entertainment..? or to make money..? Haven't you seen Businessmen touching their work place, praying before starting their business. It is the one that gives them their bread & butter. One who worships his work makes it his God, his religion. Even if you beg, cry & complain, market will not give you a dime. But if you follow JNSAR (a good guide to follow the market), it will make you richer. Just as I revere being a Hindu, I know my Islam friends, Christian friends, Sikh friends, Jain friends and Buddhism friends are a revered lot. I respect each one of them for what they are and accept them whole heartedly. And I never considered to convert them to my religion. Follow whatever you believe in..-5Sma, J10SAR, Trendline, Macd, EW, 5-20sma combo..Be truthful, sincere to it. Let your words not belittle anyone/ any system... What is the big hullabulla about JNSAR not giving target/ Stoploss, etc.. and hence it is not a trading system. Fine. I'll have the money rather than that perfect system. I don't want to know the target as long as the money keeps flowing in. I don't want a stop loss as long as I'm in a trade that gives me money. JNSAR is GOD here. It may be just another number for you. Not to us. Any problems. Should I apologise for making it a GOD. OR should you apologise for hurting everyone's sentiments. Bearish belt hold is a trend-reversal candlestick pattern indicating the beginning of a new downtrend after a significant uptrend (Day Time frame only). It is a single candlestick pattern formed of a long red bearish candlestick, which is an opening marubozo (have no upper shadow). Bearish belt hold candlestick occurs frequently and is considered less reliable and thus confirmation of trend change is necessary. The requirements of bearish belt hold candlestick are:  The candlestick should form after a significant uptrend.  The price should open above a significant gap and the opening price should be the highest price of the day.  The day should be noticeable with high bearish activity and the price should close at or near the lowest price of the day. Bearish belt hold candlestick appears when bulls fail to keep the upward trend (often above a significant resistance). Many traders begin to sell-off their positions and this mark the beginning of a new downtrend. The confirmation of trend-reversal can be a bearish candlestick, a lower gap opening or a lower close on the next trading day. Traders are also used to use other tools and indicators confirm price trends and to enter and exit trades. 1. JustNifty TA(08th Feb) Read more » Posted by Ilango at 3:56 PM 61 comments Labels: candlestick Analysis, JNSAR Thursday, January 19, 2012 Links to this post Nifty Intraday Update-I If you want to succeed in stock market, know this: There is no perfect method/ system. You may improve upon the existing one to reduce whipsaws/ make better entry & exit or create a new system based on your own parameters. The problem with the labelled "Perfect system" is that it makes you get into a complacent mode with a sense that your system will take care of results. Wrong. System stays wherever it is. You have to work with it. You have to manage your emotions of fear and greed. Fear always work when your system says buy (and in some cases sell) and greed when your system says sell. If I can not make money with the most basic "Close price + 5dema or 5 dsma", then I'm not ready to use the next level system...& then on to more sophisticated systems. Whatever system you choose, understand first how it works & whys of it and once you believe in it, never deviate from it. I'm not an expert at certifying anybody's system. If it makes money for you, it certifies itself. I have chosen a system and I do not want to look away from it. And you should also choose yours andstay loyal to it. (Whenever I see enthusiasm in readers about a new system, I feel sad that they have failed to apply themselves with the ones they know of. This is not to discourage anyone from finding a new method which is better than the existing ones. But this is an honest observation of mine that most will never admit to their own shortcomings in handling a system but end up blaming the system. Hasn't JNSAR delivered 700 points in just 19 days this year or a minimum 300 points which is 30% return on a capital of Rs.50,000 in 19 days. You could sit and work the same magic with J10SAR and so many other methods) All I emphasise here is that "Work at yourself and display everyday...every hour how you handle the market with your applied knowledge"...there is no shortage of systems. If you don't realise this soon enough, your running will never stop. Posted by Ilango at 10:01 AM 45 comments Links to this post Labels: JNSAR, market Wisdom, Trading methods, Trading with discipline Tuesday, September 20, 2011 Nifty PreMarket View If you find yourself difficult in trading a simple method like "Stop & Reverse" without another's affirmations/ approvals, the problem lies in your belief system. You may need to sit down and do a "back testing for 2 to 3 years of daily data" to know whether such a system works. Take our word for it; we have done it. Some may like to do it for themselves to feel confident about it. We have also suggested a light trading when Nifty consolidates/ corrects/ trades between DHEma and DLEma. There are occasions Nifty has fallen big after piercing JNSAR and there are also occasions Nifty has breached it by 0.50 to 2 points and has reversed. It could be debated which is the correct way but there isn't any single one but a combination of them. We apply filter for two days after JNSAR has triggered. My mistake was to "remove that trigger on the 2nd day(19th) from 5000 to 5020".For the trader who managed to avoid that whipsaw, the JNSAR for today is 5022 without the filter. However, he can choose to apply the filter on the 3rd day too as per his wish. Posted by Ilango at 6:50 AM 35 comments Labels: J10.SAR, JNSAR, Trading methods Thursday, July 28, 2011 Links to this post Nifty entering a most critical day of technical importance for the coming weeks & months with weakness. "5435-5445" is a most important channel support (Add a small filter if you must. But a close below 5593 & 5655 gives a weekly & Monthly SELL tomorrow. And a close below WLEma would add to downward momentum. Interestingly a close above the MLEma tomorrow would stretch this trading mode for some more time. Prices have been rejected at 5690-5720 range as well as at 5600-5610 range.Until these levels aren't cleared, the weakness would soon turn into downtrend with momentum. Market could pause at supports and go into a sideways mode till "US Debt event" is done with and take a direction. Our market's close tomorrow would, hopefully, give us the clue earlier. So many systems studying for all kinds of readers. Take your pick. And in the process discover each studies' strengths & weaknesses. For simplicity, stick to JNSAR with TT study to know the "Trending & Sideways market". Once you embrace it, questions will cease and peace would descend on you. Posted by Ilango at 4:40 PM 4 comments Labels: JNSAR Tuesday, June 14, 2011 Links to this post Nifty PreMarket View Tangotaurian, One of our oldest reader has created an excel file called TRADING SIGNAL that would benefit both index/ stocks traders to calculate various levels as well as auto generate trading signals. Though it has many stocks in it, you can choose to keep the number you wish to track in them, deleting the rest. He has made your job quite simple. Thank you TT. = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = == = = Following is a classic example of reading oscillators in combo with two time frames - here for short term traders with Day & Hour. Since the first sell emerged coupled with a close below DHEma on 3rd June, it has been a sell on rises till the Daily Lead indicator generates a buy. Hello sir, How are you doing.Hope you remember.I continue to follow your blog and the sar system.I had a query regarding profit bookings.Specific concern is about the way exits are shown on the table,particularly for 1st lot. For Ex, the trade on 27-05 ,the first lot was booked out in 60 points,but the latest trade on Fri was booked out in 52 points,and sometimes i see bookings in 100+ or < 20. How are these exits decided when you put on table.I ask because in real time trading we wont know when to book out. How do we decide when to exit.We can wait for 50 /100 /150 points,but its not a good way to book out.The second lot ,of course takes care of itself. = = = = = = = = = = == = Profit booking is generally based on Hourly technicals as well as the "Aggressive intraday supports/ Resistances levels". Each market moves are unique with varying TA set ups in different time frames. One needs to understand the overall market dynamics using "Tech.Table" and act accordingly. Never attempt to find a fail-safe system. Our Part booking strategy was devised to mitigate that problem. After profit booking, if you get Nifty to initiate a resell/ rebuy closer to JNSAR, do so. This maximises profits. Best wishes. Posted by Ilango at 6:54 AM 35 comments Labels: JNSAR, Reading Oscillators. Wednesday, May 4, 2011 Links to this post Learn before you start out to earn... A Mail from a reader that would be answered: Iam an ardent follower and believer of your Idea & theory. Since last few months I have criss crossed your pages on various occasions, viewing your writeups as lexical input. Every time I am stuck in two stops. 1. It would have been very convenient had there been a combined essay covering all the aspect, step by step, (like stiching a MALA)or should I say the considerations which goes in your mind while considering taking any position, which will enable us to enrich with your theory and experience. 2. While going through the CONSERVATIVE & AGGRESSIVE trade column which is given along with PREMARKET VIEW I am totally confused as however it is given on premarket review unable to match when you are shifting your stance. Going thru the write ups after you have reversed the position I have found no hint of the step in your previous or same day write ups.A mention of direction or a few consideration in which the new position is to be taken along with the same column would have helped interpret the position. I presume you dislike spoon feeding, so do I, however, dissecting the thought of a knowledgeable trader gives an enriching polish. Being shy of the rush in your blog I decided to email you, hope have not invaded your privacy. I shall be really grateful for your reply. -----------------------What goes through my mind is years of experience of being exposed to the market which translates into certain dos and donts while reading the markets/ using various studies. I have given them in the following write ups. The sequencing of my thoughts based on various studies is complex and haven't been attempted to be put in words. Would try as time permits. Applied Technical Analysis- A summary (Wrap up) Weekend Analysis - Applied Technical Analysis. OPTIONS: A powerful tool to be used with high discrimination Nifty Tech.Analysis File explained-1. JNSAR with TA /EW / Tech.table inputs. Regarding Conservative Trade: The trades are taken mostly as per the Pre-Market view. However, on certain occasions based on sudden turn of prices, the changed view is communicated through "Comments section". There is another criteria too that Conservative trade is generally initiated before the JNSAR trade(Except during sideways market) and hence for some reason, if it is not done, the same should be applied here and trade taken. Aggressive trade: These numbers are picked as per my perception of the market...whether trending or sideways. You need to ascertain first whether market is trading above pivots or below pivots..closing above pivots or below pivots..overbought or oversold..near the supports or resistances based on price study. And then sell or buy as per the resistance numbers(in red) or below Pivot(Pink) & buy @ supports(in green) and if that breaks, the next support(in green too). Understand the colouring in Tech.Table(TT) to know the severity of a trend & direction and take those trades which are comfortably positioned. Your returns will be based on risks involved. Balance it. JNSAR Trade: Enough has been written on it. You take a trade when this number is triggered. Also know that when Nifty is trading below JNSAR, the trend may be considered to be down and your trades need to be on the sell side till a confirmed +ve divergence develops. Posted by Ilango at 7:55 AM 31 comments Labels: JNSAR, Trading methods Links to this post Sunday, March 27, 2011 JNSAR with TA /EW / Tech.table inputs. The Bigger trade possibilities are highlighted whenever the Hour JNSAR & Day JNSAR has concurred and supported by other technical considerations and so on. Doubters have no place here or hereafter. Do not wait for challenges... I'm a businessman and make money and not prove anything to anyone. And at the same time if anyone comes here to disturb my peace and my blog's atmosphere, I do not hesitate to give him the boot. If you think you are saving the gullible traders, start something of your own and do something good. I am a spark...I ignite and I have been doing it for years. If your engine isn't starting, come to me...I'll surely give you the spark..That is all. Driving is your job. Instead Challenge yourself. Take this study further on...improve on it. And if you do find it worthless, trash it away and search out something better and follow it. And do not be concerned with keeping the health of this blog. I can take care of it myself along with many of my well wishers here. And once you come in here, be prepared to face the wrath of people who are patiently continuing their learning journey. There are "raapitachikkaarargal" who keep jumping from blog to blog in search of a cure for their "ever itching but never cured illness". Don't worry, you will remain the same. Till you realise that what you are searching outside is already within you (we and many like minded people are here to highlight such a point), your running will not stop. There are many traders here realised their hidden talent/ potential and exploiting the market in their own way and sharing their experiences here. I'm on a mission and I don't see anyone in front of me..All I see is just market..market..and market alone.. "Critic" - Term brings with it a lot of maturity, objectivity, responsibility and never directed at the person. Read more » Posted by Ilango at 11:09 AM 11 comments Links to this post Labels: JNSAR, Trading methods, Trading with discipline Saturday, March 26, 2011 Capture the Big moves only if you can leave your ego outside the trading room. Mothers carry their children patiently for 9 months, believing continuously in the life forming slow and steadily inside her. Each month is a different challenging one for her. Having gone through one month doesn't make her wiser for the next month. Each month brings its own challenges but she is willing to face them, doing whatever is needed. She knows..having patience and belief in the fact that millions before her have carried and delivered safely makes that journey worth all the risks which will culminate in holding a "bundle of joy" in her hands. The odd mishaps reported here & there may alarm her but never deter her to abort her mission. Most have fear while carrying out a task/mission. Fear if managed well becomes a super input for preparedness. Businessmen have failed..students have failed.. Mothers have failed..Leaders have failed.. Champions have failed.Sportsmen have failed... Failures are everywhere. But the ones whose mind is "made up" is never deterred by these so called failed attempts.They continue knowing well that if they can take care of the reasons for their failed attempts, success is then just round the corner.Remember "You can achieve anything in the market if you are willing to put in the needed efforts with discipline". Raging Sea that is capable capsizing ships never deterred sailors to sail into find its riches. Forest with its wilderness & dangers never deterred the hunters to exploit its resources. Everest with its unstable environment never deterred those steady flow of climbers to conquer it. No great job has ever been accomplished without facing uncertainities. Great feats are achieved with an unwavering belief, confidence and patience. A reader asked: Regarding ''J10SAR''..is it a simple EMA-10 moving average? which one is better among JNSAR & J10SAR? How many trades did it generate since 11th February 2011 to till date ? How many trades were won & lost? What is the total points gained on winning trades and total points lost on loosing trades? J10SAR is 10 day ema. It comes close to JNSAR. The idea here is any number will work as a SAR provided you follow the rules diligently. However, having a number that gives lesser whipsaws make it more convincing. They capture "All the big moves". I am attaching Jpg document that shows "How money would have doubled in just 30 trading days by following a number with "limited inputs from our side to manage". You may attempt to verify J10SAR feasibility. They are good but what is required is : Belief in this system. Discipline to follow the system with limited management Patience to wait to book profits and then to reverse the trade. Get rich slowly. Come Monday..Hour JNSAR will start its journey for those aggressive traders in an improved way. Kaun kehta hai Bhagvan aate nahin Bhakta Meera ke jaise bulate nahin, Kaun kehta hai Bhagvan khaate nahin, Ber Shabri ke jaise khilate nahin, Kaun kehta hai Bhagvan Sote nahin, Maa Yashoda ke jaise sulate nahin, Kaun kehta hai Bhagvan naachte nahin, Tum Gopi ke jaise nachaate nahin, Yaad aayegi unko kabhi na kabhi Krishan darshan to denge kabhi na kabhi .. Achyutam Keshavam… Devotees who do not know much of singing joins the "Bhajan groups" in temples to offer that elusive music offering to "Music loving God".. Bhagwan loves such devoted music though it may be imperfect. Similarly traders who are not professionals may join "Trading Bhajans here" to offer that elusive Rhythm to the " Rhythm loving market". Market will reward such "Rhythmic traders" more than the professional ones. Posted by Ilango at 10:15 AM 23 comments Links to this post Labels: JNSAR, Trading methods, Trading with discipline Tuesday, March 22, 2011 Nifty PreMarket View. I intend to follow up on "JNSAR gains" to instill confidence and discipline among the few traders who would like to make it somehow.....and they should have faith in a system and follow it with unwavering focus despite some frustrating days when other systems may do well and avoid "jumping from one method to another". All you need to do to gain confidence is to "Set aside capital for 2 to 3 mini lots of Nifty or regular lots" and "follow the instructions". Posted by Ilango at 6:56 AM 32 comments Labels: JNSAR, Trading with discipline Monday, October 11, 2010 Links to this post Nifty PreMarket View. Read about Weekend Analysis of Aarvee's. Question: Should i start following JNSAR method only so that with one figure, i can remain away from all the noise.These days too many numbers are thrown on Justnifty blog and i m very bad at trading positions. I was reading about 10% returns, i will be content with 5% only. Answer: JNSAR is a pivotal number which reflects the balance of power within Nifty and once the power shift decisively, big gains may be made in it as was evident in Sept. upmove. But there aremany occasions, a keen tussle develops at such a point to wrest back the control as was evident on 30th sept. settlement day @ 5981 and on Friday @ 6103. There are two ways to handle it: You simply initiate a trade as & when JNSAR is triggered and keep a 20 point leeway within a day to keep the trade alive as well as contain adverse moves in the opposite directions. If it moves away by 20 points, reverse the trade and monitor it based on next day's JNSAR. A JNSAR triggering in the 1st session is likely to stay and the 2nd session may get volatile. The other way is to identify consolidation period and trade Nifty around JNSAR for which some experience in TA & EW is required. On Friday, after 2.00PM, Oversold indications were evident from the hour charts and knowing that a Trading range is developing, one should part book at such levels. Major falls generally do not unfold with weekly TA in upmode. How to do "Intraday trading" effectively.? A simple approach would be to be prepared with critical support/ Resistance levels derived from price charts based on price clusters along with fibo./ ema/sma/ Pivot numbers that coincide with them and use of these numbers when the "Intraday charts" get oversold or overbought as well as development of +ve or -ve divergences. You must make certain exceptions when the prices are trending up or down firmly and trade accordingly. I will start to post an "Intraday analysis" at the end of the day for understanding them better. You may also refer "Always start trading with these" at the top right side of this blog for referencing. Posted by Ilango at 6:32 AM 27 comments Labels: JNSAR, Trading methods Thursday, September 2, 2010 Links to this post JNSAR - a Stop And Reverse Trading method. Trading based on JNSAR: My sincere gratitude to MOK for his constant workings on it, co-sordinating with Piyush sharda, Manojag, Yoda, assortz, RM, Sujatha, aarvee to find out the flaws, adding the "Filtering idea" and also the idea of "Ploughing back the profits" to increase the trade size once a solid base is built. MOK is still at work. In due time, he will deliver the final product. MOK has been the added spirit and enthusiasm to this "trading method". He is currently busy with his project commitments. In the meantime, "why let go off opportunities..?" ***************************************************************** JNSAR is a number based on market's strength and weakness as well as the balance of demand and supply. Whatever the number may be, a choppy market could whipsaw the number occasionally to shake off your confidence in them. However, staying with one method brings you consistent winnings. Step:1: As the JNSAR for yesterday was 5468 and the previous trade taken was a sell @ 5483 on 25.08.10, the moment Nifty breached 5468 yesterday, you close out your earlier short and take a long position in minimum 2 lots - Stop and reverse (SAR). Step:2: If after triggering a reversal trade @ 5468 and markets fall again, you do not change the trade on the same day as JNSAR is done only once a day but do so only the next day based on next day's JNSAR. (Risk averse could have a Stop loss in extreme choppiness but the essence of JNSAR is to keep the trade once triggered and manage it the next day only. If and when such extremes take place, I'll be around to alert you. This has not happened in the last 3 years). Step:3:Once a new trade is taken in aminimum 2 lots, you book on one lot with a profit of 50, 100+ points and keep the 2nd lot till a reverse trade is triggered based on each subsequent day's JNSAR. Step:4: After booking out on the 1st lot, if Nifty climbs back substantially and start to fall again, take a new trade again. For Eg: After triggering a sell @ 5483 on 25.08.10, Nifty fell to 5392 on 27.08.10 and the 1st lot was booked @ 5397 and on Monday, it rebounded to 5469 and started to fall breaking day's low @ 5441, another sell could have been taken and another profit booking would have been done. This step is optional and suited for the experienced. Step:5: You may use the filter of 0.2% to 0.3% on JNSAR for 2 days once JNSAR new trade is taken to give the new trade a fighting chance & survive. For eg: For the new long trade taken @ 5468 yesterday, the JNSAR of today @ 5457 may be altered to minus 0.3% to 5441. Step:6: Donot count your winnings. Stay focussed on each trade. I show the winnings in the table to show you that " I T I S P O S S I B L E". Some readings are listed below. You will also find some write ups on it under "Always start trading with these"-step:6 on the side of this blog. The Stop and Reverse (Known as SAR,) is a trend following indicator, that was developed by J. Welles Wilder. The Parabolic SAR is based upon the theory that a strong trend will continue to increase in strength over time, and will therefore follow a parabolic arc. The Parabolic SAR is displayed as a single parabolic line underneath the price bars for a long (upwards) trend, and above the price bars for a short (downwards) trend. The Parabolic SAR is displayed on the same chart as the price bars, and is the yellow lines in the example chart (full size chart). Calculation Trading Use As the Parabolic SAR is a trend following indicator, it is only designed to be used in confirmed trends, and will give very bad results in a small ranging or sideways market. Entries are signaled by the start of a new parabolic arc, and exits are signaled by the price touching the parabolic arc. As the price touching the parabolic arc, is also the reason for the start of a new parabolic arc, the exit from the current trade and the entry into a new trade occur at the same time (hence the name Stop and Reverse). An alternative way of using the SAR might be to indicate the direction of the current trend, and then make entries and exits based upon another indicator (such as a momentum indicator). More on SAR method. Monday, October 15, 2012 Nifty Pre-Market View. Beginners as well as those not able to find successful trades: Knowledge: To make consistent profits from stock market, understand the market first using a simple study such as the Basic technical analysis using Channels, Lead & lag indicators. Belief: Having studied, have a strong belief in them that they'll produce results. Discipline-I: With a strong belief, initiate a trade as in God's command written in scriptures. Patience: Once a trade is initiated, sit through patiently for the price to lead you to the targets/ through the journey while having an ironclad stop loss for any "surprises". Discipline-II: Remember to part book, once the prices start to move in "your" direction and exit the trades once SL is breached or target is reached or reversal signals are seen. Caution: As you get closer to the market, eg: in day trading, your level of consciousness and experience need to be high as well as your ability to manage your trades. If you are not qualified enough, do not destroy your capital. Safety: Instead, go for "Positional trades" based on either a simple TA or JNSAR. Even here, the "close basis" signals are more trustworthy. Fear: Everyone has fear including the champions and heroes. You deal with fear, only by facing it and you can face it only if you have a strong belief system. Waving mind has no place here. Greed: Just as fear can bury you, greed can blow you away. Hence, stay grounded by remaining "silent", part booking/ exiting without celebrations. Holy grail: "Secrecy & Silence" are the two key ingredients for success. Do not fritter away your successes by talking about it. Let making money be your sole aim. Let you believe in your study and act only when the wind is favourable and remaining idle during all other times. Get Rich Slowly and Quietly. Read more » Posted by Ilango at 7:55 AM 50 comments Labels: For Beginners, Trading with discipline Thursday, August 9, 2012 Links to this post Nifty Pre-Market View. Trendlines: Read here Follow this simple strategy in all your trading/ investing strategies and let it be part of your plan. The tendency to ignore is strong here as it is the "simplest one". But believe me, it is the foundation for the complex EW study. So skip EW if you find it complex and embrace trendlines. One should call it the "supply-demand equilibrium Line" Trend Following: Read Here This is the oft-repeated statement of most experts in stock market field and oft-ignored by the "hurrying-kind" who outnumbers the disciplined. Change your side soon to become a habituated winner. How could you have applied these two basic, simple to comprehend strategies in recent times..? State your experience if you think it will benefit others. ......................................................................................................... Remember, the hour is in a corrective mode but the day technicals continue to remain firm. Read more » Posted by Ilango at 7:52 AM 45 comments Labels: Trading with discipline Thursday, August 2, 2012 Links to this post Nifty Pre-Market View. Trading is one of the few professions where you can deal with a "faceless and no-prejudice market". It can not be manipulated by any one or group of individuals beyond a certain measure. You are in such a kind of profession. However, what you do day in and day out has a lot to do with who you are...and what you are..? The emotions that run through your rest of your lives will seep through your trading life too. Do you have a habit of procrastinating...you'll do so in your trading life too with your entries/ exits and stop losses. Do you have a habit of abusing relationships...you'll do so with your positions..your beautiful positions that promised millions would leave you penniless. Do you give in to bullying, not stand up for what you believe in...you'll also get bullied by the market's gyrations, unable to hold your positions. Do you give importance to values...believe in dreams and dream big or do you just give lip service to values and dream without belief...your trading life to will pass off insignificantly. If you are disciplined enough to cherish your each and every relationships for what they are truly worth...your mother for all the love she showered on you...for your wife for standing there behind you in every one of your efforts...for your friends for believing in you despite your shortcomings...and your children who have been given to you for nurturing who depend on you and who have given you immense joy. Do you cherish these values...do you work consciously to nurture them...do you take responsibilities for all the outcomes of your undertakings.. Do you keep your head high and walk tall in this world for having done your duties admirably to your satisfaction....not being pushed around by traditions..societies..expectations of near and dear ones but only as per your beliefs... Then...and then only Trading will come naturally. What works in one aspect of your life will definitely work elsewhere. Swami Vivekananda told the youth "to go and play football rather than sitting and reading Bhagawad Gita" to emphasise the need to have an obedient body. Without such an obedient body, you just can't achieve greatness in this "material world". To conquer nature, to exploit its riches....conquer yourself. Conquering starts with small acts of yours. Get on top of your affairs. A super conscious state of mind is needed to achieve such results. And it is definitely possible by one and all. If you jump into the river like a piece of twig, you'll be pushed around and get washed away. But if you jump in like a fish, you'll be able to deal with the flow of river. To deal with anything, you need to educate yourself...train yourself. And if you are already a trained person in other walks of life, you get trained in the new ones quite easily. Take your time to set your life in order and then come back to trading with preparedness. Develop a poise in your mind that can withstand all swings of emotions by dealing with your daily challenges/ duties responsibly, confidently. Only a calm mind can deal with a hurricane. Only a faithful mind can receive divinity. Only an obedient person can become a master. And the last word is still not written on this but revealing your mind here is the first and major step in the right direction. Thank you for all your contributions. They are enriching. Dear Dinesh Rishi...Our best wishes to you for a successful conclusion. Read more » Posted by Ilango at 7:50 AM 54 comments Labels: Life Line, Trading with discipline Wednesday, August 1, 2012 Links to this post Nifty nears the resistance zone "5258-5279" with intra corrections.. Have you ever asked yourself what is discipline in trading..?? What is your definition of discipline in trading?? Would you share your experience, the good, bad and the ugly.? Read more » Posted by Ilango at 3:48 PM 37 comments Labels: Trading with discipline Monday, June 11, 2012 Links to this post Rule #1 Always Protect Your Capital While watching Million Dollar Baby, I can't help but notice how many times her trainer says "protect yourself". Every trader should remember these words of wisdom before deciding to take a trade... "Always protect your capital". We have always stressed to keep a stop loss of just 20 points unless a very valid reason exists. ----------------------------------------------------------------Weekly TA has turned up. For BN, it has turned up with "Momentum". If 61.8% or 80% of the current rise from 4995 lows(Fri) holds, we would assume that the "3rd" wave is in progress.(1st wave being 4770 to 5060=290 points; giving the 3rd a min. target of 5285 as equality). Alternatively, if Nifty finds resistance @ 5125 zone and retraces, it would be treated as 2nd wave in progress and 3rd wave waits. One who surrenders to the price, wins...has strength of character. Best to you "Gkm223". Read more » Posted by Ilango at 7:02 AM 38 comments Links to this post Labels: market Wisdom, Trading with discipline Wednesday, May 16, 2012 Nifty Pre-Market View Reader: You have given me enormous knowledge, confidence, system etc., of the market which cannot be termed in any thing, Thank you sir! Guruji, With the help of your Blackboard (BLOG) I could now able to understand little bit trend following, impact of different time frames on trend as well as corrections, likely profit booking/targets and reversal. It seems, I understand that in downtrend intraday rallies are good opportunities for SHORT again & again similarly in uptrend intraday declines are good opportunities for LONG again & again. However, every time I wait patiently to complete the rally in downtrend and decline in uptrend but I am not able to take position on right point & time. On the contrary I do nothing instead of thinking let it cross this point then again this point, let lead indicator do this or let macd move somewhere and hence, sit idly surpassing one by one candle and on exhaustion of the rally/decline I curse myself for not-acting on time & point. After the exhaustion of the move, I think with pride that my assumption was correct and should have taken the position at the crossover of EMAs or at the low/high of the candle. What force is acting upon me? I have gone several time through your lesson "trade based on two time frames" taught on Sunday, April 4, 2010 but not able to grasp any thing about the entry criteria /entry point without fear. It may be the spoon feeding, but kindly do the favour for for me. What I have conveyed my difficulty it seems clumsy Sir, please do spare some time at your convenience to guide me about the simple entry criteria / entry point so as to enable me to take the bid confidently. Answer: About the simple entry criteria/ entry points, you have stated appropriately, "in downtrend intraday rallies are good opportunities for SHORT again & again and similarly in uptrend intraday declines are good opportunities for LONG again & again". What force is acting upon me? This too has been stated by you, "I do nothing; not able to grasp any thing about the entry criteria /entry point without fear; I think with pride that my assumption was correct". You know swimming but you aren't taking the plunge. We can teach you swimming but can not teach how to take the coldness of the water & deal with the "feelings" that form in you when you swim...we can teach you cycling but can not teach you how to handle yourself while cycling in different terrains, traffic, etc. There is something no one can teach you is "to feel & face the reality". Teaching is always done in "laboratory conditions" but acting or application is done in "real situations". What you are experiencing is a common problem with most intelligent traders. Your intelligence is NOT THE GOAL. Realise it. Shift the goal post from "finding a trading plan" to "Trading the plan". The real "goal post" is "executing the trade plan" and only when you execute your trade, should you pat yourself and the scoring is done. Till you realise this most important aspect of all life situations that "acting on your study, hunch, intuition alone will bear result and not getting your degree or certificate or finding a plan". How to take the plunge: Trusting and believing in your intelligence when it works with total objectivity,initiate the trade as though it is the only right & logical thing to do. Act when you should and never after market has acted on it(that would be catching the running train). You have already done enough mental(paper) trades and now its time to execute few actual trades.....not just any trade but those intelligent trades which you are fond of patting yourself up. Start feeling the "accomplished sense" when a trade is done and move on to the next trade... Take those trades of "selling into rallies" & "buying into declines" using fibonacci retracements even before the "indicators confirm" (Indicators take the cues from prices and hence act on prices and get confirmations from indicators later). Start communicating with the market with your trades...she'll reward the sincere. Get Rich Slowly and Quietly. Read more » Posted by Ilango at 7:26 AM 55 comments Labels: For Beginners, Trading with discipline Friday, May 11, 2012 Links to this post Nifty Pre-Market View. A trending market with higher T/F in confirmed downtrend(week) needs to be treated differently and "lots of patience" is required to make big money. EOD prices remain same on some days but "intraday rallies" get sold into. As a trader, you make "more money", playing those moves. We have shown in the past few days-7th May, 8th May, 9th May, 10th May- how to initiate such trades using developing resistances along with fibonacci retracements. And they definitely are not "peanuts". Infact, they improve your "SAR performances" in a significant way. Aren't we all traders? Rising market in downtrend offers you "Juicy opportunities" and you need to be like the smart farmer who identifies ripe fruits & pluck them. Identify those amazing opportunities to initiate trades and that is called "catching a running train at junctions till the engine is put in reverse direction". In such downtrends, I still strongly recommend you to "Sell on rises", leaving out the "counter trend rallies" till a reversal signal emerges. Just as "Dinesh Rishi" prefers to "Only buys in an uptrend", you could adopt "Only sells in downtrends".After all, a trend is a trend...whether "Up or Down" and a trader would do well to know the trend and play along. 5 sma is like the "Indian rope trick in a trending market" that prices keep coming back to it and moves away. It did so on the "GARR day and yesterday" and that is 2 great opportunities. Similar thing happened in BN & many stocks too.This is also called "catching up with averages". Take advantage of the steady, disciplined contributors: "Mynac"(KST/ OI), "Sanjay Jaiswal(OI)", Cooldent(JNSAR), Shriram(Google 30min TA),J.R.Julius(Camarilla)& DineshRishi(Disciplined TA) and others to be identified once consistency is visible. Read more » Posted by Ilango at 6:48 AM 60 comments Links to this post Labels: Trading methods, Trading with discipline, Trend follow Thursday, January 19, 2012 Nifty Intraday Update-I If you want to succeed in stock market, know this: There is no perfect method/ system. You may improve upon the existing one to reduce whipsaws/ make better entry & exit or create a new system based on your own parameters. The problem with the labelled "Perfect system" is that it makes you get into a complacent mode with a sense that your system will take care of results. Wrong. System stays wherever it is. You have to work with it. You have to manage your emotions of fear and greed. Fear always work when your system says buy (and in some cases sell) and greed when your system says sell. If I can not make money with the most basic "Close price + 5dema or 5 dsma", then I'm not ready to use the next level system...& then on to more sophisticated systems. Whatever system you choose, understand first how it works & whys of it and once you believe in it, never deviate from it. I'm not an expert at certifying anybody's system. If it makes money for you, it certifies itself. I have chosen a system and I do not want to look away from it. And you should also choose yours andstay loyal to it. (Whenever I see enthusiasm in readers about a new system, I feel sad that they have failed to apply themselves with the ones they know of. This is not to discourage anyone from finding a new method which is better than the existing ones. But this is an honest observation of mine that most will never admit to their own shortcomings in handling a system but end up blaming the system. Hasn't JNSAR delivered 700 points in just 19 days this year or a minimum 300 points which is 30% return on a capital of Rs.50,000 in 19 days. You could sit and work the same magic with J10SAR and so many other methods) All I emphasise here is that "Work at yourself and display everyday...every hour how you handle the market with your applied knowledge"...there is no shortage of systems. If you don't realise this soon enough, your running will never stop. Posted by Ilango at 10:01 AM 45 comments Links to this post Labels: JNSAR, market Wisdom, Trading methods, Trading with discipline Wednesday, December 7, 2011 Nifty PreMarket View Read through this article on Reckless gambler forwarded by FIRE. Many get into the phase of reckless gambling mode once in their life, the degree of recklessness being varied. It is in your genes and you act this way when you are faced with life-threatening circumstances. Even the most disciplined individual may not be able to engage in individually rational behaviour thanks to adaptive „hard-wired‟ neural mechanisms that conferred survival benefits to the species. The survival of the fittest underlies “modern adaptations such as boredom, thrill-seeking behaviour,rebellion, innovation, and most recently, financial market bubbles and crashes... From an evolutionary perspective, financial markets are neither efficient nor irrational – they are merely adaptive.” The rogue trader may appear to be acting strangely, but he does what comes naturally. Knowledge of this kind of tendency in us should alert us to our behavioral changes and we should make a conscious effort to step back and look for conservative approach to redeem our status though it may be time consuming. Get rich slowly and quietly. Read more » Posted by Ilango at 6:37 AM 25 comments Labels: Trading with discipline Wednesday, November 23, 2011 Links to this post Nifty reached the earlier cluster point around 4600. 1. JustNifty TA(24th Nov) Why traders get emotional and not able to follow through their plans? The answer is quite simple. When you make your trading plan, you use your brain. When you start to execute the plan, implement your strategy, leave out the "thinking"...leave out your "ego".... Just do it. Using your brain unnecessarily, you end up a loser...and you have also seen many messing up their trades despite knowing fully well what should be done. Now try this: Without using your brain, simply execute the trades. Wait... wait..not just yet.. Wait for those "good trade set ups" to emerge and then start. With this knowledge that trades are messed up when we start having "opinions" of what the market will do....and this fear holds you back from doing the right thing. So the steps you must take include: 1. Plan a trade with one or two contingency plans. 2. Key in your order to buy or sell. 3. When the order is executed, key in the "Exit price" along with your SL. 4. Do not change it unless one of your contingency scenario start to play out. 5. For simplicity, you can do away with contingency plans. How do I plan my trade...? Take the JNSAR number and plan your trade with it. It can't get simpler than this.I have shown it in the pre-market table. Can you get dumber...dumber...and then see all those riches.. Stop the chatter..start hearing those money jingles. If you are not holding your "Shorts" created @ 5275NF, wait for the next signal or next re-sell opportunity. Click on the chart to get a clear view. Read more » Posted by Ilango at 4:52 PM 25 comments Links to this post Labels: For Beginners, Trading methods, Trading with discipline Monday, October 17, 2011 Nifty is correcting the overbought Hour TA. Following the established studies in true spirit itself is rewarding. It is our objectivity to such studies that differentiates success/ failure. How much importance / weightage we could give to a particular study and at what situations comes with more exposure to various markets. How could you get more optimistic or excited or even depressed unless you have your own opinions or expectations?. If you simply state, with discrimination, what you observe and deduct your conclusions from such an objective analysis, you'll simply follow and not form opinions. Your study should lead you to state buy/ buy on dips/ sell/ sell on rises/ wait for more clarity. It requires tremendous poise of mind. When we attain such a poise...calmness, it spreads to all aspects of our life and we become a true yogi. It is a journey in which I still struggle to shake off my prejudices. Everyday is a progress as long as my sincerity of purpose remains. Start believing in your strength while being humble & grateful for all the talents & resources GOD has bestowed on you. You'll then walk tall. (I am reproducing the reply to one of our readers and felt like sharing it) JustNifty TA( 18th Oct) Read more » Posted by Ilango at 4:21 PM 16 comments Links to this post Labels: market Wisdom, Trading methods, Trading with discipline Thursday, September 15, 2011 Nifty, holding Day's pivot, moved past week's Pivot & touched Month's Pivot. There are many studies available to follow market behaviour such as Technical analysis, Elliott wave, fundamental analysis, Market Profile, etc. Within Technical analysis, there are many methods based on various momentum indicating, trend indicating as well as reversal indicating methods available. Once a beginner goes through these studies, he/ she must choose one method to follow as well as trade the market. It is easy to get distracted when various techniques are discussed. It is the same with life too. Once a businessman chooses his trade, he/ she will go deeper into that trade and attempt to excel in it by applying all his/ her resources and such an enterprise will always deliver satisfying results. So choose your method.And be prepared for 25% failures which will get managed by your "Stop loss application" and the remaining 75% will be well managed with "Part booking and trailing stop loss or till a reversal signal is generated". Knowing the principles involved in your chosen method helps you to plan, execute and manage your trades independently. The initial time well spent in acquainting yourself with your system and constant affirmation to yourself about your belief in your system will help you "Stay on course" to "Get Rich Slowly & Quietly". EW has possibilities but it generally comes down to directions in which the "distance varies". After a 5, a 3 unfolds and after a 3, a minimum 3 unfolds. This is the basic structure. Now you have to decide for yourself, what kind of trader you are and which time frame's waves you intend to trade. Choose and stay glued to it. When you merge regular TA with EW, it favours 4th.c unfolding currently(OR an "x" wave). The bearish 5th wave down gets negated @ 5117(80%) but the negation gets confirmed above 5169 and above week's pivot, it has already lost its significance. Read more » Posted by Ilango at 5:03 PM 21 comments Links to this post Labels: Trading methods, Trading with discipline Friday, June 24, 2011 Nifty ploughs through all resistances & sadly brought out the worst in people.. There are various studies to make your trading plans. Some of these studies could be used only as a supporting factors(indicators), some for directions(EW) but the most important and primary study is "Price behaviour observed as Higher High & Higher Low for uptrend OR Lower High & Lower Lows for down trend and Rangebound in a Sideways trend. Depending on your chosen time frame-5 min/ 15min/ 30min/ Hour/ day, etc., choose a combination such as Day & Hour or Week & Day or Hour & 5 min and study the prices by giving more weightage to Higher T/F. Tech.Table don't lie especially for most of the traders here who trade the short term looking for 30,50,100 points. TT is just a reflection of prices. If your plan was to reverse your shorts above 5363(JNSAR) or 5375-as discussed here often, what stopped you.? What is the use of "Pre-Market Trading plans" if it does not come to anyone's use..? Why everyone wants to know where the market will be on settlement day or at the end of the day or in two months time..? Such opinionated utterances distract everyone. It does not help anyone if you said few days back that market will go to 5700 or 5450 or 5100. You distract the traders here from observing the "unfolding prices". What are you..? Are you a Classic TA follower, following the market using few indicators such as macd, Stochastics and HH - HL & LH - LL and so on and what did it lead you on to..? Are you EW follower..? What was its short term direction and what are its invalidation points..? And what did you do..? Are you a JNSAR follower..? What was its reversal point and why there was disbelief when it triggered a buy..? Biased..? Are you a Open Interest follower..? What did it suggest yesterday and in today's opening session..? Are you the "Havala rate" follower..? Did you abide by it..? @ 5412. Let the damn market do anything it wants to do.. You do what you got to do. To hell with gap ups and gap downs.. To hell with operators who take the blood out of small traders. Know the playing rules. Know your limitations. Within those, devise your plan and extract your "Pound of flesh"..(Vegetarians..excuse me, please.) Do not berate yourself, if you have missed one trade..today. Believe in your studies. This is the slap market gives when you loose concentration. Be prepared for contingencies - when in downtrend, devote some time to "think like the bulls" and when in uptrend, spare a thought to the "likely bear approach". Do these when market "Stalls"..or when market is not following your "estimated route". Believe me..when I say this.. Just as we made 1000+ points last month, we'll make as good this month too. And in the coming months too. Let us say, May month was exceptional. Keep then a 300 to 500 points per month. Bring in that discipline. And stop gloating on your winnings. Get Rich Slowly and Quietly. There are few options listed out here.Eliminate each as the prices unfold next week. Month end is just 4 days away and on the settlement day. Posted by Ilango at 4:22 PM 18 comments Labels: Trading with discipline Thursday, June 9, 2011 Links to this post Nifty kept below the crucial 5542 of this week. Dear Dinesh Rishi, Your strength is your composure and a cool temperament. You may not be aware of it but many benefit by your conservative approach to market trading and investing as well as your ability to abide by the system, thereby removing all kinds of conflicting thoughts. You inculcate such discipline in your trading dialogues that the readers are often reminded of its simplicity. How many understands such simple approach to market in their pursuit of wealth. Most look for excitement. And they get it but at what cost. You do not need any of them but surely many would benefit by your presence. You have never found it a burden and you conduct your affairs with ease. It hurts to see you being upset. I am sure you'll sort this one out. =============================== Identify the commencement of a sideways market once market closes below DHEma in uptrend and above DLEma in downtrend and look for support/ resistance cluster points based on earlier price behaviour as well as the developing one and combine the same with fibonacci retracement points and TRADE. TRADE means sell to buy and buy to sell and not hold till prices are reversed as in a trending market. Make 15 points or 25 points. And miss a potential trade. Do not worry. And a potential trade stops out - accept this trading loss. And keep a reasonable SL closer to supports for Longs and closer to resistances for shorts and trade. Ofcourse, you can choose to sit out and watch the market action and play it in your mind "if you had gone long or short at a particular level - what is the result?". Not doing any trading for 5 to 6 days would protect your capital while you observe a potential trade set up developing. Watching the market, thus, educates you of market's "whipsawing nature" which is actually "whipsawing our perceptions". Market moves to new high with a 2 point move to 5540 today which falls right into the potential resistance zone of 5535-5545. About your trading system - it works differently in a trending market and in a sideways market. Know this essential difference and you will start trading with ease.Feel the market; Use the system to make more profits and less Loss. Posted by Ilango at 5:04 PM 20 comments Links to this post Labels: Trading methods, Trading with discipline Friday, May 27, 2011 Nifty "pauses" in its weekly downtrend with a close above 5445. Let us not strain to look for wave labels, especially in the short term. Remember to combine technical studies to add weightage to your observations. Feel the pulse of the market with the force with which prices rise or fall. The best place to gauge Bull-Bear's strength is during corrective phase. The undercurrent is known during such phases.Elliott, himself, would exclud3e certain topping and basing waves out of his counts as whipsaws would cloud one's assessment of waves. While reading through the comments, beaware of the "Calls" being given out by other readers - know in advance the time to wait for the targets, stop losses (whether you are willing to risk this much money on a trade), the weightage of the observations as reflected by the prices and above all "Know your Time frame of trade - Hour/ Day or weeks and whether you are willing to have a SL as per such a T/F". Why this alert..? Though the reader may give away the calls, they may not be around to monitor it for you or urge you to book profits or exit. You have to do it confidently. Markets have a way of "freezing" even the professionals with its sudden changes. You simply trade your plans. It is darkest before dawn and it is very bearish before a reversal. The bearishness witnessed wasn't so severe like a med. term bearishness but like a short term bearishness. Accordingly expect the reversal too to last in that much intensity & time until proved otherwise. Tech table shows you what trend is currently on. Presently, the day trend is up with momentum but the weekly downtrend has only paused. Bulls would attempt a close above 5555 and accordingly an attempt towards 5555 is likely. A close below Day High ema will put the market back into a sideways mode. Read more » Posted by Ilango at 5:07 PM 16 comments Labels: Trading with discipline, Trend follow Sunday, March 27, 2011 Links to this post JNSAR with TA /EW / Tech.table inputs. The Bigger trade possibilities are highlighted whenever the Hour JNSAR & Day JNSAR has concurred and supported by other technical considerations and so on. Doubters have no place here or hereafter. Do not wait for challenges... I'm a businessman and make money and not prove anything to anyone. And at the same time if anyone comes here to disturb my peace and my blog's atmosphere, I do not hesitate to give him the boot. If you think you are saving the gullible traders, start something of your own and do something good. I am a spark...I ignite and I have been doing it for years. If your engine isn't starting, come to me...I'll surely give you the spark..That is all. Driving is your job. Instead Challenge yourself. Take this study further on...improve on it. And if you do find it worthless, trash it away and search out something better and follow it. And do not be concerned with keeping the health of this blog. I can take care of it myself along with many of my well wishers here. And once you come in here, be prepared to face the wrath of people who are patiently continuing their learning journey. There are "raapitachikkaarargal" who keep jumping from blog to blog in search of a cure for their "ever itching but never cured illness". Don't worry, you will remain the same. Till you realise that what you are searching outside is already within you (we and many like minded people are here to highlight such a point), your running will not stop. There are many traders here realised their hidden talent/ potential and exploiting the market in their own way and sharing their experiences here. I'm on a mission and I don't see anyone in front of me..All I see is just market..market..and market alone.. "Critic" - Term brings with it a lot of maturity, objectivity, responsibility and never directed at the person. Read more » Posted by Ilango at 11:09 AM 11 comments Links to this post Labels: JNSAR, Trading methods, Trading with discipline Saturday, March 26, 2011 Capture the Big moves only if you can leave your ego outside the trading room. Mothers carry their children patiently for 9 months, believing continuously in the life forming slow and steadily inside her. Each month is a different challenging one for her. Having gone through one month doesn't make her wiser for the next month. Each month brings its own challenges but she is willing to face them, doing whatever is needed. She knows..having patience and belief in the fact that millions before her have carried and delivered safely makes that journey worth all the risks which will culminate in holding a "bundle of joy" in her hands. The odd mishaps reported here & there may alarm her but never deter her to abort her mission. Most have fear while carrying out a task/mission. Fear if managed well becomes a super input for preparedness. Businessmen have failed..students have failed.. Mothers have failed..Leaders have failed.. Champions have failed.Sportsmen have failed... Failures are everywhere. But the ones whose mind is "made up" is never deterred by these so called failed attempts.They continue knowing well that if they can take care of the reasons for their failed attempts, success is then just round the corner. Remember "You can achieve anything in the market if you are willing to put in the needed efforts with discipline". Raging Sea that is capable capsizing ships never deterred sailors to sail into find its riches. Forest with its wilderness & dangers never deterred the hunters to exploit its resources. Everest with its unstable environment never deterred those steady flow of climbers to conquer it. No great job has ever been accomplished without facing uncertainities. Great feats are achieved with an unwavering belief, confidence and patience. A reader asked: Regarding ''J10SAR''..is it a simple EMA-10 moving average? which one is better among JNSAR & J10SAR? How many trades did it generate since 11th February 2011 to till date ? How many trades were won & lost? What is the total points gained on winning trades and total points lost on loosing trades? J10SAR is 10 day ema. It comes close to JNSAR. The idea here is any number will work as a SAR provided you follow the rules diligently. However, having a number that gives lesser whipsaws make it more convincing. They capture "All the big moves". I am attaching Jpg document that shows "How money would have doubled in just 30 trading days by following a number with "limited inputs from our side to manage". You may attempt to verify J10SAR feasibility. They are good but what is required is : Belief in this system. Discipline to follow the system with limited management Patience to wait to book profits and then to reverse the trade. Get rich slowly. Come Monday..Hour JNSAR will start its journey for those aggressive traders in an improved way. Kaun kehta hai Bhagvan aate nahin Bhakta Meera ke jaise bulate nahin, Kaun kehta hai Bhagvan khaate nahin, Ber Shabri ke jaise khilate nahin, Kaun kehta hai Bhagvan Sote nahin, Maa Yashoda ke jaise sulate nahin, Kaun kehta hai Bhagvan naachte nahin, Tum Gopi ke jaise nachaate nahin, Yaad aayegi unko kabhi na kabhi Krishan darshan to denge kabhi na kabhi .. Achyutam Keshavam… Devotees who do not know much of singing joins the "Bhajan groups" in temples to offer that elusive music offering to "Music loving God".. Bhagwan loves such devoted music though it may be imperfect. Similarly traders who are not professionals may join "Trading Bhajans here" to offer that elusive Rhythm to the " Rhythm loving market". Market will reward such "Rhythmic traders" more than the professional ones. Posted by Ilango at 10:15 AM 23 comments Links to this post Labels: JNSAR, Trading methods, Trading with discipline Tuesday, March 22, 2011 Nifty PreMarket View. I intend to follow up on "JNSAR gains" to instill confidence and discipline among the few traders who would like to make it somehow.....and they should have faith in a system and follow it with unwavering focus despite some frustrating days when other systems may do well and avoid "jumping from one method to another". All you need to do to gain confidence is to "Set aside capital for 2 to 3 mini lots of Nifty or regular lots" and "follow the instructions". Posted by Ilango at 6:56 AM 32 comments Labels: JNSAR, Trading with discipline Friday, March 11, 2011 Links to this post Nifty PreMarket View. Guidelines for Conservative trade: A complete EW structure with Day Lead indicator reversing from above 80 mark or from below 20 mark, Macd turning down/up, Closing below DHEma/ above DLEma followed by a close below/ above DEma & Divergences if any. Guidelines for Aggressive trade: Same as above but in Hour Time frame. Guidelines for Aggressive intra-trade: Knowing the direction; Current trend; Using Global cues; Using Pivot table & Tech.Table to choose the resistance & Support numbers; Using RT Chart; Willingness for small SL; No hesitancy to book profits at your target levels inspite of trend continuing to favour your trade. Posted by Ilango at 7:53 AM 60 comments Links to this post Labels: Intraday Trading, Trading methods, Trading with discipline Sunday, February 6, 2011 Follow one specific...that should be your choice..become independent Follow...follow..follow. If you are following TA, do as it shows you. If you are following EW, do as it unfolds. If you are following MP, do as it dictates to you. If you are follwing SAR, do as it changes. If you are following "your intuition", do as it guides you. But don't argue & waste yours and others time and don't compare your trades with others as most don't reveal theirs. In general...don't make NOISE. Be specific .. to the point.. to the facts.. If we could trade this down move from 6339 till now following our various methods successfully, we could continue our journey further ahead in the same manner with out predicting but by simply "following" our methods...your methods. I reproduce here one such meticulous study done by FIRE & my reply and it made me produce a NF chart which might be useful for Monday's trading. Thank you FIRE. Your success in the stock market comes down to your consistency in following your chosen methods and methods being man made will have their share of failures which are well managed with proper exit & reversal plans. When you follow the markets strictly, you are the true trader..not a bull..not a bear. Nifty Tech.Analysis File explained-1.  Pivot Sheet: As you key in the high, Low, High of any stock or Index, this table calculates the "Pivot" point, three supports & three Resistances. This could be used for trading purposes. For more on this, read "Pivot, Supports & Resistances".  Blog Data Sheet: This is the most important sheet in the file and it collects vital data automatically as you update the "Data.W(eek), Data.D(ay) and Data.H(our)" sheets.It has Date, High, Low & Close in the first four columns. If the high clears the previous two day's high, the colour changes in the cell. Similarly if the low breaks previous two day's lows, the colour changes telling us the change in the swing highs and swing lows.Generally a two day swing clearing is an indication of a change in direction. But there are also false breakout/ breakdown in this, hence I have taken 5-day high & Low breaking as one of the factors for"Conservative Trade" initiation.  5.Ema:This is placed in the 5th column(E) and it is the most important short term average. Unlike a simple moving average which averages the last 5 days prices equally, ema gives more weightage to the most recent prices by a mathematical calculation and thus it is a good indicator of short term strength or weakness of the market. The colour of the cell & the font changes to "Red" the moment the close price closes below this critical ema indicating the onset of weakness. And it changes to green if the close price closes above it indicating strength. As long as the weekly close was above this ema, the daily falls were bought into. Since the 18th Dec "weekly sell Signal" as per this ema, the first day resulted in a sell(21.12.09). Now the highly oversold daily as well as Hourly with positive divergences will attempt a reversal. For the week, the first week after the sell signal is the "fight back" week if there is any strength left in the earlier uptrend. A continued close below the week ema on 24.12.09 will more or less confirm a larger time scale reversal in trend. Similarly when the day close is closing below the 5day ema, a sell signal is generated and use this signal to sell in the hourly time frame everytime there is an intraday rally towards either hour ema or Hour high ema. Always give more weightage to the higher time cycle and play the lower time cycle till a "overbought or Oversold" situation arises in the higher time cycle when one should approach with caution but continue in the same direction.  High ema:This is placed in the 10th column(J) and it is the 5 day ema of the highs made on the previous 5 days giving more weightage to the most recent highs. Thus, as the Close price stays above this the upward momentum is intact and the market is expected to make continued up moves and new highs.The moment the close price closes below this, the colour changes to yellow and font to red signaling the onset of a correction. Sell on rises come into play and market will attempt during this period to move higher than this "High ema" during intraday but only a close above this will bring back a lasting momentum. Similarly the moment the close price closes above this the colour changes to green and font to green signaling the resumption of the upward momentum. Buy on dips come into play and market will attempt during this period to move lower than this "High ema" during intraday which generally is bought into but only a close below this will bring in a correction.  Low ema: This is placed in the 11th column(K) and it is the 5 day ema of the lows made on the previous 5 days giving more weightage to the most recent lows. Thus, as the Close price stays above this the uptrend is intact and any fall till this low ema may be construed as only a correction.The moment the close price closes below this the cell & font colour changes to red signalling the onset of a downtrend. Sell on rises come into play and market will attempt during this period to move higher than this "low ema" during intraday but only a close above this will bring back a "Neutral mode". Similarly the moment the close price closes above this the cell colour changes to blue and font to blue signalling the "likely end of a downtrend". Buy on dips for trading may come into play and market will attempt during this period to move lower than this "low ema" during intraday but only a close below this will continue the downtrend.  D.Macd & S.Macd: These two are placed in 6th & 7th Columns (F, G) and they are the values of fast macd(5,10,9) and Slow macd(12,26,9). As this numbers are ascending, it is in uptrend and as the numbers are declining, it is in downtrend and the colour changes to Red during downmoves and to Green in upmoves. For more on this MACD, please read an exhaustive write up here.