My presentation at the Washington International Renewable Energy Conference, on the serious problems of biofuel dependency when scaled globally and over this century
- 1. GLOBAL BIOFUELISHNESS?? WIREC Presentation March 5, 2008 by Michael TottenChief Advisor, Climate, Water & Ecosystem Services Conservation International firstname.lastname@example.org
2. Amory Lovins1 billion gallons/day Seattle MayorGreg Nichols San Fran Mayor Gavin Newsom 3. Source: Amy Raskin and Saurin Shah, The Emergence of Hybrid Vehicles, Ending Oils Stranglehold on Transportation and the Economy, June 2006, AllianceBernstein, www.calcars.org/alliance-bernstein-hybrids-june06.pdf . Siting Feng An, Pew Center for Global Change and WRI Capital Markets Research. 4. Eliminating USA Oil dependency $70 to $280 billion per year net savings (@ $25 to $100 per bbl) T]he books powerful summaryarguespersuasively that by 2035 we can be entirelyindependent of imported oil and that it willcost less to displace all of the oil that theUnited States now uses than it will cost tobuy that oil. Robert C.McFarlane (National SecurityAdvisor to President Reagan), Wall StreetJournal, 20 Dec. 2004Dept. of Defense sponsored, peer-reviewed technical report, preface by former Secretary of State George Schulz, intro by ex-Chairman, Royal Dutch Shell, Sir Mark Moody-Stuart www.oilendgame.org/ 5. Fuel Efficiency Impact on USA Land Requirements for Biofuel ProductionPHEV 100 mpg 6. U.S. Biofuel Subsidies per ton CO2 LowHighEstimateEstimateEthanol$300 ($600) Biodiesel$240($700)Efficiency-$11 Source: Doug Koplow, BIOFUELS - AT WHAT COST ?, Government support for ethanol and biodiesel in the United States : 2007 Update, One of a series of reports addressing subsidies for biofuels in selected OECD countries, The Global Subsidies Initiative (GSI) of the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), Geneva, Switzerland, www.earthtracks.org/ 7. Money-saving, Oil-reducing, land-conserving Cost Comparison Biodiesel vs Truck Efficiency $70$60$50p er b arrel co st $40$65 $30$20$10 $12$- biodiesel truck efficiencyAmory B. Lovins et al., Winning the Oil End-Game, 2005, www.oilendgame.com/ 8. 6.4 mpg -- 17 billion gallons Land required ifSwitching fromFossil Diesel toBioDiesel from 265 million acres Soy Plantations Texas + Kansas +For all Class 8trucks in USA Oklahoma 9. 6.4 mpg -- 17 billion gallons 13 mpg 7.6 billion gallonsIf Efficiency insteadof biodiesel 265 80 million acres 19 mpg 5 billion gallons 10. Connecting the 980 GW Utility Gridand The 2,700 GW of Battery Capacityin Plug-In Vehicles 11. PNL 2006 Analysis Summary PHEVs w/ Current Grid Capacity ENERGY POTENTIAL U.S. existing electricity infrastructure has sufficient available capacity to fuel 84% of the nations cars, pickup trucks, and SUVs (198 million), 73% of the light duty fleet (about 217 million vehicles) for a daily drive of 33 miles on average ENERGY & NATIONAL SECURITY POTENTIAL A shift from gasoline to PHEVs could reduce gasoline consumption by 85 billion gallons per year, which is equivalent to 52% of U.S. oil imports (6.5 million barrels per day). OIL MONETARY SAVINGS POTENTIAL ~$240 billion per year in gas pump savings AVOIDED EMISSIONS POTENTIAL (emissions ratio of electric to gas vehicle) 27% decline GHG emissions, 100% urban CO, 99% urban VOC, 90% urban NOx, 40% urban PM10, 80% SOx; BUT, 18% higher national PM10 & doubling of SOx nationwide (from higher coal generation).Source: Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kevin Schneider, Robert Pratt, Impacts Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities andRegional U.S. Power Grids, Part 1: Technical Analysis, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 01/07, www.pnl.gov/. 12. Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles? Solar-w/storage Wind turbines ground footprint Wind-w/storage turbine spacingCellulosic ethanol Corn ethanol Solar-storage and Wind-storage refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles, CAES or other storage technologiesCOMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5, 2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol 13. Figures of Merit Great Plains1,200,000 mi2 100% U.S. electricity 400,000 wind turbinesPlatform footprint6 mi2Large Wyoming Strip Mine >6 mi2Total Wind farm area37,500 mi2Available for farmingand prairie restoration 34,000 mi2CO2 U.S. electricity sector40% 14. Although agriculture controls about 70% of Great Plains land area, it contributes less than 10% of the Gross Regional Product.Wind farms could enable one of the greatest economic booms in American history for Great Plains rural communities, while also enabling one of worlds largest restorations of native prairie ecosystems How? The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains = Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture) 15. Wind Royalties Sustainable source of Rural Farm and Ranch IncomeUS Farm Revenues per hectareCrop revenue Govt. subsidynon-wind farm Wind profitswindpower farm$0 $50 $100 $150$200$250windpower farmnon-wind farm govt. subsidy $0$60 windpower royalty $200$0 farm commodity revenues $50 $64 Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/ 16. Potential SynergismsTwo additional potential revenue streams in Great Plains:1) Restoring the deep-rooting, native prairie grasslands that absorb and store soilcarbon and stop soil erosion (hence generating a potential revenue stream fromselling CO2 mitigation credits in the emerging global carbon trading market);2) Re-introducing free- ranging bison into these prairie grasslands -- which naturally co- evolved together for millennia -- generating a potential revenue stream from marketing high- value organic, free- range beef.Also More Resilient to Climate-triggered Droughts 17. In the USA, cities and residences cover 140 million acres. Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by applying PV to 7% of this areaon roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and in other dual-use scenarios. We wouldnt have to appropriate a single acre of new land to make PV our primary energy source! 18. 1% of land area receives 300 TWy (TeraWatt-years) of solar energy. At 20% conversion efficiency Solar PV systems would yield 60 TWy 400% more than 2005 total global energy use. UniSolar Roll-to-roll triple-junction amorphousSillicon deposition plant of 30 MW annualUsing PV to supply all US electricity and all US energy requires only 0.4% and 1.2% of US land area, respectively. US military bases and Farm Set-Aside Land are each about 1% ofUS land area now. NanoSolar roll-printing process of Copper-Indium- Gallium-diSelenide (CIGS) solar cells in Calif. 19. Hypoxia Dead Zones due to Agriculture fertilizer run-off 20. Using Wastewater Pollutants as Feedstock forBiofuel Production through Algae Systems 21. Nutrient Rich WaterClean water(Sewage, polluted river water) Lower N P P, higher O2 + pHATS+ atmospheric CO2 Less CO2 in atmosphere(or power plant stack gases)ALGAL CO2 BIOMASSDis tillaBiobutanoltio nSolvent FermenterExtraction (Clostridium butylicumOilEthanol C. Pasteurianum, etc.)AcetoneC6H12O6 C4H9OH + CO2 + Transesterification Lactic Acid Acetic AcidOrganic Biodiesel Fertilizer Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: ADEYW@si.edu ph: 202 633-0923 22. Biofuel Production from ATS Biomass(50 tons per acre per year, dry)Estimated Biofuel Production(gallons per acre per year)Algaebutanol 1520+biodiesel 2000 Corn (ethanol) 500 ----Soy (biodiesel)----100Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: ADEYW@si.edu ph: 202 633-0923 23. Small Land footprintOnly Wastewater as Feedstock Butanol, Biodiesel and Clean Water Outputs 24. Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: ADEYW@si.edu ph: 202 633-0923 25. Food, Fuel, Species Tradeoffs? By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha of land may be required for agriculture.When combined with the 800 million ha of additional land needed to support the medium growth bioenergy scenarios, this will greatly increase threats to intact ecosystems and biodiversity-rich habitats.