Bridging the gaps: Challenges and Opportunities

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CGIAR Consortium Update on Open Access, Funding, and Data ManagementBridging the gaps between AR and ARDChallenges and Opportunities Alain VidalAKIS-ARCH Workshop, Brussels, 26-27 May 2014Photo: A. Vidal1CGIAR Centers developed high yielding varieties for staple cereals that were the engine of the Green RevolutionIn the 1970s, when the world was equally worried, or perhaps even more worried, about global food security - particularly about famines in Asia - the Ford and Rockefeller Foundations took the initiative to make major investments in agricultural innovation. They set-up international agricultural research institutes for commodities, such as rice, wheat, maize, and potatoes, for tropical agriculture, and for dry areas. These institutes became CGIAR, the worlds leading agricultural research partnership, working towards a food secure future. With their partners, CGIAR Centers developed high yielding varieties for staple cereals that were the engine of the Green Revolution, that helped prevent famines in Asia, and led to abundant food and low food prices for several decades. 2CGIAR: agricultural research for a food-secure futureCGIAR is unique because of the breadth and diversity of its research for development.CGIAR Scientists across the globe address the interrelated issues of food security, nutrition and health, and the natural environment. We stand at the brink of a crucial moment in history, with a unique perspective. We know research and its practical application can make a vast difference to the poorest on our planet. Through broad research and innovation, open access to data, its capability to translate data into knowledge, strong cross-cutting partnerships, and long term planning CGIAR can bridge divides and change the way researchers work. We aim deliver results, and ensure they are adopted, turning information into on-the-ground-impact.3CGIARs research is carried out by 16 Research Programs (CRPs), working in close collaboration with hundreds of partners worldwide The organization's over-arching themes are: partnership, gender and capacity building. It is the unique complementarities of the activities of the CGIAR Research Programs, born from the reform, that place CGIAR in a key position to significantly contribute towards solving the challenge of Food Security. The research carried out by CGIAR can be directly linked to the UNs Sustainable Development Goals for food security, health, nutrition and environmental challenges, and today, donors and the Research Centers work together in order to make a unique scientific contribution to agricultural development for people who are poor. 4Bridging the gaps between AR and ARD3 examplesClimate-Smart AgricultureCombining mitigation and adaptationThe Wheat initiativeEcological intensification through healthier water, land and ecosystemsWhat is Climate-Smart Agriculture?62013Why is CSA important? AdaptationGlobal wheat and maize yields: response to warming72013Why is CSA important? Food SecurityMazT-MaxT-MaxYieldYieldArrozClimate drives yield variation: our systems are sensitive to climate, not resilient to it82013Why is CSA important? MitigationAgriculture-related activities are 19-29% of global greenhouse gas emissions (2010)Agriculture production (e.g., fertilizers, rice, livestock, energy)Land-use change and forestry including drained peatlandsIndustrial processesWastePercent, 100% = 50 gigatonnes CO2e per yearNon-Ag Energy70114292013Why is CSA important? MitigationBusiness as usual (BAU) agriculture emissions would comprise >70% of allowable emissions to achieve a 2C worldGt CO2e per yearNon-agricultural emissionsAgricultural and land-use change emissions>70%488521102013Significant successes in CSA11Sequestration of carbon in soil and trees NIGERBringing back the Sahels underground forest5 million ha of land restored, over 200 million trees re-establishedReduces drought impactsAdditional half a million tonnes of grain per yearFMNR spreading across southern Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali and Senegal. The structure and fertility of the soil has improved = rain soaks into the soil more readily and water tables have risen in some places, making water more accessible and available to plants and people alike. Together, these changes have increased the resilience of farming systems to extreme weather events, diversifying sources of food and income and protecting land and water resources. goods and services provided by indigenous trees: timber, firewood, fodder, fibre, medicines, fruits, edible leaves and nuts, fodder, dyes and many environmental services.12 CHINAPaying for ecosystem services2.5 million farmers paid to set aside land and plant treesSequestered over 700,000 tonnes of carbon 2 million ha rehabilitated reducing erosionIncreased yields13Alternate-Wetting-and-Drying (AWD)30% water20-50% GHGWithout compromising yieldKeep flooded for 1st 15 days and at flowering Irrigate when water drops to 15 cm below the surface024681012141615.08.7-42%0246810121416t CO2-eq/ ha*season4.93.9-20%02468101214160246810121416-22%-28%6.04.76.44.6Hilly mid-slopes Delta low-lying Summer-AutumnWinter-SpringSander et al. in press IRRIAWD Conventional14This is a technology that can facilitate low emissions development. It has good yield characteristics but using much lower water and reduces GHGs. Plenty of work is needed on the incentives to make it happen. We are working on this with the Vietnam government that has taken a very progressive approach to GHGs, targeting a 20% reduction in agricultural GHGs by 2030. Climate-smart coffee-banana systemsMicroclimate: shading can reduce temperature by >2 CelsiusShade biomass increases carbon stock CC mitigationShade plants increase revenue and food security for smallholdersincome up > 50%Van Asten et al (2014)This work is based on hundreds of detailed on-farm observations/measurements in Uganda, Burundi, and Rwanda and it has now also been confirmed in some controlled on-station experiments on the intercropping versus the mono-cropping practice.Coffee is the primary foreign exchange earner for much of the East African highlands (Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, and parts of Tanzania, Kenya, East DRC)The crop is dominantly cultivated by smallholder farmers (>90%) for whom it provides and important cash boom once or twice a yearThe same farmers (often) depend on bananas as a primary food and cash crop, providing income/food throughout the yearSuitability for Arabica coffee is strongly decreasing, with lower altitud areas ( climate-smart shade systems. Coffee is a shade-loving plant by natureIntercropping banana in coffee brings shade and reduces coffee sensitivity to climate shocks (drought, hail) and climate-related pest and disease pressure (e.g. 50% lower coffee leaf rust incidence). Intercropping increases income >50% (confirmed in several on-farm studies in Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda). It reduces farmer vulnerability to climate, disease, and price shocksBanana intercropping was not recommened in the past (sometimes forbidden like Burundi and Rwanda) and farmers were encouraged/obliged to practice monocropping.No research was conducted on this by the public sector to help farmers. The private sector was organized along coffee value chains. Banana intercropping does not increase (neither decrease) coffee yields, hence there was no incentive by the private sector to encourage intercroppingIITA-CCAFS research is currently engaging with authorities in Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda to enable policy/recommendation changes -> exiting progressResearch continues using climate-analogue concepts (i.e. move down the slope to see what coping strategies work when temp. increases) and learning from real farmers.15What if - we spread agroforestry across Africa?Most of the technologies and practices that mitigate emissions also improve productivity and can contribute to food security and poverty alleviation.PRODUCTIVITYHigher incomes for farmersHealthier animalsBiodiversity conservation due to reduced land pressureRESILIENCEEmission Reduction Potential:- 1.8 Gt CO2-eq/yr in 2010 (FAO)- 3.3 Gt CO2-eq/yr in 2050FOOTPRINT-30%Emissions (Gt CO2-eq/yr)Remaining Gap to 2C Pathway:3.1 Gt CO2-eq/yr-30%Using already wide-spread technologies currently available: Feeding practices, Animal husbandry, Health managementResult: Reduced unproductive share of animals in the herd, higher resource efficiency.Livestock: Higher productivity Lower Emission IntensityBased on results of the GLEAM Model, FAO 2013, ExtrapolationsBAUWith CSA2C PathwayEmissions (kg CO2-eq/kg Milk)Milk Production per CowExample Dairy:Below 2000 kg milk/cow/year, productivity increases correlate with very significant reductions in emissions intensity.Analysis based on WRI 2013Approximate area suitable for Agroforestry in Africa:~ 300 Million Ha140+ Million People below $1.25 per dayMap & Data from WRI 2013 WRR Interim Findings http://www.wri.org/sites/default/files/WRI13_Report_4c_WRR_online.pdfThe scenario is a rough assessment of Agroforestry potential, more detailed numbers available soon.16What if - we spread agroforestry across Africa?Most of the technologies and practices that mitigate emissions also improve productivity and can contribute to food security and poverty alleviation.PRODUCTIVITYHigher incomes for farmersHealthier animalsBiodiversity conservation due to reduced land pressureRESILIENCEEmission Reduction Potential:- 1.8 Gt CO2-eq/yr in 2010 (FAO)- 3.3 Gt CO2-eq/yr in 2050FOOTPRINT-30%Emissions (Gt CO2-eq/yr)Remaining Gap to 2C Pathway:3.1 Gt CO2-eq/yr-30%Using already wide-spread technologies currently available: Feeding practices, Animal husbandry, Health managementResult: Reduced unproductive share of animals in the herd, higher resource efficiency.Livestock: Higher productivity Lower Emission IntensityBAUWith CSA2C PathwayEmissions (kg CO2-eq/kg Milk)Milk Production per CowExample Dairy:Below 2000 kg milk/cow/year, productivity increases correlate with very significant reductions in emissions intensity.Approximation of area suitable for Agroforestry and Water Harvesting in Africa:~ 300 Million HaPRODUCTIVITYMultiple benefits include:Reduced soil erosionAdditional diversified income from wood productsStrengthened drought resistance from increased water storageRESILIENCEFOOTPRINT+615 Calories per person/day for 140+ Million poor peopleAverage yield increase 50%Savings of over6 Million tons of synthetic fertilizerAdoption on150 Million HaAdoption on300 Million Ha+44 Million Tons+88 Million TonsFood ProductionCarbon Sequestration- 1 Gt of CO2eper year- 2 Gt of CO2eper yearAdoption on150 Million HaAdoption on300 Million Ha2 Gt Co2e storage per year corresponds to ~1/3 of Global Direct Ag EmissionsSignificantly higher mitigation potential by further increasing tree density and in humid systemsAgroforestry can be combined with other practices such as water harvesting for additional impact.Yield & Production:WRI 2013 WRR Interim Findings http://www.wri.org/sites/default/files/WRI13_Report_4c_WRR_online.pdfThe scenario is a rough assessment of Agroforestry potential, more detailed numbers available soonNitrogen: Ca 20kg additional nitrogen needed at very low nitrogen levels to increase yields by 50%Footprint:Numbers based on a conservative 2 tons of C (~7.2 t CO2 eq) per Ha per year in dry low density systems - based on Nair et al. 2009Ag emissions ~5.5 Gt according to WRI 2013, excluding land use change in contrast with a 7 Gt emission estimate for livestock alone by FAO used for livestock slides.17Direct agricultural emissions are spread across regions and across production sectors18Source: FAOStat data from 2010 (accessed 2013); area of pie charts scaled to regional emissions.Ag soils includes synthetic fertilizers, manure applied to crops, field application of crop residues, and nitrous oxide from cultivated organic soils.Mitigation opportunities by country19Source: CEA analysis. Mitigation opportunities are clustered primarily in the major agricultural economies. Numbers will change a bit1912 million farmers & 40 different crops insured INDIAWeather-based insuranceReduces pressure to bring more land under cultivationReduces risksAllows farmers to access fertilizer and better seedThis company currently insures millions of farmers in India. It insures many crops.CCAFS is working with the insurance company to design better insurance products that better help farmers manage risks.We are working on the metrics (indices) that trigger the insurance products, These indices need to be tailored to local contexts with all their complexities, like specific crop varieties, differing planting dates and varied crop husbandry practices.We also work on improving the weather data, as very local data is needed to provide the input into the decisions when insurance is paid out. We are exploring remote sensing data combined with meteorological data to improve the coverage of the weather data.20Adaptations to deal with higher climate variability and climate risksTowards more transformative changeBetter weather forecasts and climate information reaching farmers, governments, emergency reliefSocial safety nets to help vulnerable people recover from climate shocksWeather insurance in agriculture reaching more farmersCSA Alliance: AR and ARD institutions united with International Organizations and NGOsIncludes Joint Research Programming Initiative on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change (FACCE-JPI), CIRAD, WAU, etc.22Minimum Goals for 2050Environmental Goals Development GoalsTotal Agricultural ProductionNutritionally Complete ProductionBiodiversity ConservedCarbon SequesteredImproved Water QualityWater ConservedSoil FormedFood Security GoalsFood Distribution and AccessConserve agrobiodiversityIncreased Farmer LivelihoodsAnd ResilienceImprove Human HealthIncrease Farm Self RelianceAdapted from Foley et al 2011Production GoalsAn agriculture that contributes to environmental protection rather than environmental degradationWe need to think of an agriculture that contributes to environmental protection rather than environmental degradation. For this we need an integrated approach, we can not think of these goals in isolation, but we need to think of them. Many of these are socioecological goals, rather than simply ecological or agricultural. Conserving agricultural diversity can help to conserve cultural diversity or cultural identity as well. Producing healthy and wholesome foods contributes to human health and ultimately can reduce Change some of these for the four categories of ecosystem services. 26N-S Partnerships for ecological intensificationwww.cgiar.orgwww.slideshare.net/cgiarTHANK YOU28