Upscaling aquatic ecosystem service provision by management of the drivers of change

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Upscaling aquatic ecosystem service provision by management of the drivers of change Dr. Chris Dickens & Dr. Gordon OâBrien What are ecosystem services? Benefits humans…

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Upscaling aquatic ecosystem service provision by management of the drivers of change Dr. Chris Dickens & Dr. Gordon OâBrien What are ecosystem services? Benefits humans obtain from ecosystems (Costanza et al 1997) Environmental Quality Social Well Being Economic Prosperity Governance Figure 11: Sustainability model in South Africa Phase 2 of the Lesotho Highlands Water Project IFR P1 IFR P2 IFR 5 IFR 6 Photo: David Brazier/IWMI Photo :Tom van Cakenberghe/IWMI Photo : David Brazier/IWMI Photo: David Brazier/IWMI HYDRO. FOUNDATION PARAMETERISE THE MODEL Photo: David Brazier/IWMI Photo :Tom van Cakenberghe/IWMI Photo : David Brazier/IWMI Photo: David Brazier/IWMI WATER QUALITY: Spatial Changes EC SS Electrical conductivity The survey data (coloured points,) model grid and mapped out roughness areas at IFR P2. Velocity modelled for IFR P1 at 40.08 m3/s, s (observed in January 2014). HYDRAULICS Inundation depth modelled for IFR P2 At 40.08 m3/s (observed in January 2014) Geomorphological features at IFR P2 A stylised depiction of the riffle transect GEOMORPHOLOGY Aerial cover estimation (%) for vegetation components stratified by sub-zones at IFR P1: woody vegetation assessment (top), non-woody vegetation assessment (bottom). Letters in brackets e.g. (B/C) indicate ecological category of the sub-zone RIPARIAN VEGETATION SOCIO-ECONOMIC BASELINE (1 of 5)     Total Consumption (Per Household) Total Consumption (Population) Household well-being indicator M 9,519 36,172,613         Water:       All water consumption m3/a 64 244,623 Senqu River consumption m3/a 2 8,862         Fish:       All fish caught # 142 538,245 Senqu River catch # 107 405,303         Wild Edible Plants:       All collections Bags/a 220 836,039 Senqu River riparian collection Bags/a 83 316,609         Wild Medicinal Plants:       All collections Bags/a 64 242,896 Senqu River riparian collection Bags/a 37 140,444         11 SOCIO-ECONOMIC BASELINE (3 of 5)     Total Consumption (Per Household) Total Consumption (Population)         Livestock numbers:       Cattle # 1 3,764 Sheep/Goats # 1 2,669 Horse/Donkey # 0 248 Other # - -       6,682 Domestic Energy:             Wood:       All collections Bags/a 477 1,813,264 Senqu River riparian collection Bags/a 357 1,355,255         Bush:       All collections Bags/a 552 2,098,679 Senqu River riparian collection Bags/a 247 940,109         Dung:       All collections # 14,638 55,625,594 Senqu River riparian collection # 4,423 16,808,884         12 SOCIO-ECONOMIC BASELINE (5 of 5) Cultural services: Cultural diversity, spiritual and religious values, aesthetic values, recreation and ecotourism 13 Historical flows Current flows Future flows Hydrology Geomorphology Hydraulics Water quality RIVER TYPE HYDROLOGICAL STATISTICS SOURCES/STRESSORS (Location of multiple source/stressors) ENVIRONMENT PEOPLE LOCAL COMMUNITIES OTHER BENEFICIARIES BIOLOGICAL COMPONENT PHYSICAL CONTENT HABITATS (Location of multiple receptors) SOCIO-ECOLOGICAL ENDPOINTS (Location of ranked impacts to endpoints) Floodplain non-woody plants (grazing) Medicinal plants for people Edible plants for people Protection of fish for the ecosystem Reeds Protection of the riparian ecosystem Protection of the river benthos Domestic water (drinking and washing) Fish stocks as food for people Recreational/spiritual use Woody plants (fuel, construction) Building sand supply from instream CONCEPTUAL MODEL CONSTRUCTION Photo: David Brazier/IWMI Photo :Tom van Cakenberghe/IWMI Photo : David Brazier/IWMI Photo: David Brazier/IWMI CONCEPTUAL MODEL CONSTRUCTION Photo: David Brazier/IWMI Photo :Tom van Cakenberghe/IWMI Photo : David Brazier/IWMI Photo: David Brazier/IWMI PROBFLO: EXPANSION OF EXAMPLE S3 RIPARIAN PLANTS (FOOD, FUEL AND BUILDING MATERIALS) SUPPLY FROM ENVIRONMENT DEMAND: LOCAL COMMUNITIES LOCAL COMMUNITIES OTHER BENEFICIARIES DEMAND FOR LIVESTOCK DEMAND RIPARIAN PLANT COMMUNITIES ABUNDANCE RIPARIAN COMMUNITY INTEGRITY ENVIRONMENTAL REQUIREMENTS HYDROLOGY GEOMORPHOLOGY HYDRAULICS WATER QUALITY HABITAT FLOW STANDARD 16 PROBFLO: Conditional Probability Tables Output Node Possible states by defined ranks Likelihood of outcomes given input states Conditional Probability Table S2 17 RIPARIAN PLANTS (FOOD, FUEL AND BUILDING MATERIALS) SCENARIO 1: NO DEVELOPMENT, REFERENCE STATE. SC 1 RIPARIAN PLANTS (FOOD, FUEL AND BUILDING MATERIALS) SCENARIO 2: POST DEVELOPMENT, WITH IFR IMPLEMENTATION. SC 2 RIPARIAN PLANTS (FOOD, FUEL AND BUILDING MATERIALS) SUPPLY FROM ENVIRONMENT ENVIRONMENTAL REQUIREMENTS HYDROLOGY HABITAT MAINTAIN EXISTING MACROINVERTEBRATE COMMUNITY STRUCTURES ENVIRONMENTAL REQUIREMENTS HYDROLOGY HABITAT (HYDRAULICS) ECOLOGICAL CUES HYDROLOGY MAINTAIN VIABILITY OF RHEOPHILIC RVER FISH GUILD ECOLOGICAL CUE FLOWS ENVIRONMENTAL REQUIREMENTS HYDROLOGY HABITAT (HYDRAULICS) WATER FOR LIFE (PEOPLE AND LIVESTOCK) SUPPLY FROM ENVIRONMENT QUANTITY FISH (SUBSISTENCE FISHERY) SUPPLY FROM ENVIRONMENT ENVIRONMENTAL REQUIREMENTS HYDROLOGY HABITAT QUANTITY FORMAL WATER ABSTRACTION MONITORING EWRs Photo: David Brazier/IWMI Photo :Tom van Cakenberghe/IWMI Photo : David Brazier/IWMI Photo: David Brazier/IWMI SCENARIO INTERPRETATION â CHANGE IN ECOSYSTEM SERVICES CALCULATE THE RELATIVE AND INTEGRATED RISK 21 Thank you!